AS Roma 3-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AS Roma at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Pisa meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Pisa (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pisa away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in AS Roma's favour (1.20 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: AS Roma 1W, Pisa 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with AS Roma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
AS Roma — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Pisa — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 42% versus Pisa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 38% | Pisa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 2.52 xG and Pisa 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.234 / defence 0.764 | Pisa attack 0.760 / defence 1.620. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.173. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.620 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 69 AS Roma games / 31 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 77% | Draw 15% | Pisa 8%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.30 | Draw 6.67 | Pisa 12.50. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (77%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Pisa 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Pisa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Friday 10 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 77% | Draw 15% | Pisa 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 45% | xG AS Roma 2.52 / Pisa 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.234 / def 0.764 | Pisa attack 0.760 / def 1.620 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Pisa xG
45%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Pisa kick off?
AS Roma vs Pisa kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 10 April 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Pisa?
AS Roma 3 - 0 Pisa.
Where is AS Roma vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Pisa part of?
AS Roma vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 77% chance of winning, Pisa a 8% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both AS Roma and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 0 | Pisa 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Pisa in?
AS Roma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Pisa (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.23x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.62x — combine the two and it projects 2.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.76x) against AS Roma's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
77%
1.29
15%
6.82
8%
12.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
AS Roma xG
Total xG
3.21
0.68
Pisa xG
1.29
77%
Home win
6.82
15%
Draw
12.63
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
8%
12.48
Win to Nil
39%
2.55
1%
157.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.68 for Pisa, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Pisa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AS Roma come into this having played 69 games, going 37W 12D 20L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 1.33 PPG from 69 outings (24W 20D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Pisa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AS Roma's home form reads 23W 4D 7L across 34 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.15 points per game from 34 outings (9W 12D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AS Roma are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.23 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Pisa in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 37W 12D 20L in their last 69 games (1.78 PPG), while Pisa have gone 24W 20D 25L in their last 69 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Pisa away?
AS Roma's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.15 PPG; Pisa away: 1.15 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Pisa in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
AS Roma
0
Draws
0
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 2, Pisa have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when AS Roma 3-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Pisa?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 38%, Pisa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (AS Roma) and 53% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Pisa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of AS Roma's recent matches and 53% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of AS Roma's recent games and 53% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Pisa tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Pisa in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Pisa 3-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 2.52 xG and Pisa 0.68 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.23 / defence 0.76 against Pisa attack 0.76 / defence 1.62, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 77% | Draw 15% | Pisa 8%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 77%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 38%, Pisa 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pisa's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.