AS Roma 2-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Parma meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 29 October 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Parma have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. AS Roma's 2.40 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Parma's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AS Roma lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
AS Roma half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Parma half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 41% versus Parma 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 35% | Parma 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.00 xG and Parma 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.873 / defence 0.787 | Parma attack 0.661 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.058. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 AS Roma games / 46 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 44% | Draw 38% | Parma 18%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.27 | Draw 2.63 | Parma 5.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.55. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.55 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Parma's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.55 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 28%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 44% | Draw 38% | Parma 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 28% | xG AS Roma 1.00 / Parma 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.873 / def 0.787 | Parma attack 0.661 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Parma xG
28%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Parma kick off?
AS Roma vs Parma kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 29 October 2025 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Parma?
AS Roma 2 - 1 Parma.
Where is AS Roma vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Parma part of?
AS Roma vs Parma is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 44% chance of winning, Parma a 18% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both AS Roma and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Parma?
Record (2 meetings): AS Roma 2W | Draws 0 | Parma 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Parma in?
AS Roma (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Parma (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 0.87x the league average against Parma's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.66x) against AS Roma's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.55.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 22.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (19.7%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
44%
2.27
38%
2.64
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
21.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
AS Roma xG
Total xG
1.55
0.55
Parma xG
2.27
44%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.51
72%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
58%
1.73
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
7%
15.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.2 | 11.6 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.2 | 11.7 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.7%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.55 for Parma, a combined total of 1.55.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 26W 9D 11L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma's form line: 8W 19D 19L from 46 games, 0.93 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Parma.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 2.04 PPG from 23 outings (15W 2D 6L).
On the road, Parma have gone 2W 11D 10L from 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.02 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Parma in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 26W 9D 11L in their last 46 games (1.89 PPG), while Parma have gone 8W 19D 19L in their last 46 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Parma away?
AS Roma's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.04 PPG; Parma away: 0.74 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Parma in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 5-0 on 22 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
AS Roma
0
Draws
0
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 4, Parma have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Parma 2-3 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Parma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Parma see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 39%, Parma 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (AS Roma) and 48% (Parma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Parma in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of AS Roma's recent matches and 52% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of AS Roma's recent games and 48% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Parma tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Parma in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Parma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Parma 2-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.00 xG and Parma 0.55 xG, a combined 1.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.87 / defence 0.79 against Parma attack 0.66 / defence 0.96, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 44% | Draw 38% | Parma 18%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 35%, Parma 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Parma's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.