AS Roma 2-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
AS Roma welcome Hellas Verona to Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 20 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
AS Roma — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AS Roma's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — AS Roma are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hellas Verona stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Hellas Verona have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, AS Roma have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, AS Roma have won 2, Hellas Verona 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended AS Roma 1–2 Hellas Verona — a Hellas Verona win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 52% versus Hellas Verona 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 45% | Hellas Verona 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.72 xG and Hellas Verona 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.215 / defence 0.851 | Hellas Verona attack 0.869 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.070. Data: built from AS Roma's last 58 games and Hellas Verona's last 58.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 59% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 16%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.71 | Draw 3.96 | Hellas Verona 6.18. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (59%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AS Roma 60% (last 10 home games) | Hellas Verona 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 59% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG AS Roma 1.72 / Hellas Verona 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.215 / def 0.851 | Hellas Verona attack 0.869 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Hellas Verona xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Hellas Verona FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Hellas Verona kick off?
AS Roma vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
AS Roma 2 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is AS Roma vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Hellas Verona part of?
AS Roma vs Hellas Verona is a Serie A fixture (matchday 21) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 59% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both AS Roma and Hellas Verona will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will AS Roma vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Roma's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 58 games and Hellas Verona's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.5%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
59%
1.71
25%
3.96
16%
6.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.51
0.79
Hellas Verona xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
6.18
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
3%
34.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Hellas Verona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.79 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Roma come into this having played 58 games, going 26W 14D 18L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 0.88 PPG from 58 outings (12W 15D 31L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AS Roma's home form reads 17W 6D 6L across their last 29 home games, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 0.59 points per game from their last 29 away games (3W 8D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.86 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
AS Roma (Home) vs Hellas Verona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ AS Roma vs Hellas Verona Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 26W 14D 18L in their last 58 games (1.59 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 12W 15D 31L in their last 58 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Hellas Verona away?
AS Roma's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.97 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.59 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Hellas Verona been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hellas Verona in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 24 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: AS Roma have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
AS Roma's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
AS Roma
1
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Hellas Verona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Hellas Verona?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 6, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Hellas Verona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 May 2026: Hellas Verona 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Hellas Verona?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 41%, Hellas Verona 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (AS Roma) and 34% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Hellas Verona in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Hellas Verona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Hellas Verona matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of AS Roma's recent matches and 48% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Roma and Hellas Verona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of AS Roma's recent games and 34% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Hellas Verona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of AS Roma's recent matches and 66% of Hellas Verona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Hellas Verona 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Hellas Verona 2-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.72 xG and Hellas Verona 0.79 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.22 / defence 0.85 against Hellas Verona attack 0.87 / defence 1.01, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 59% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 16%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 45%, Hellas Verona 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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