AS Roma 1-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AS Roma face Fiorentina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Fiorentina travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma in Serie A (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, AS Roma stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, AS Roma have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fiorentina — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AS Roma 2.00 PPG, Fiorentina 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for AS Roma, 2 for Fiorentina and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2023, ended AS Roma 1–2 Fiorentina — a Fiorentina win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
AS Roma trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Fiorentina trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 52% versus Fiorentina 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 48% | Fiorentina 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.70 xG and Fiorentina 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.336 / defence 0.888 | Fiorentina attack 1.049 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.155. AS Roma carry an above-average attack rating of 1.336 — their 1.70 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from AS Roma's last 52 games and Fiorentina's last 52.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 51% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 23%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.94 | Draw 3.98 | Fiorentina 4.27. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AS Roma's last 10 home games and Fiorentina's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Roma 60% (last 10 home games) | Fiorentina 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 51% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG AS Roma 1.70 / Fiorentina 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.336 / def 0.888 | Fiorentina attack 1.049 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Fiorentina xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Fiorentina FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Fiorentina kick off?
AS Roma vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
AS Roma 1 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is AS Roma vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Fiorentina part of?
AS Roma vs Fiorentina is a Serie A fixture (matchday 15) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 51% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AS Roma and Fiorentina will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AS Roma vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.34x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 52 games and Fiorentina's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
51%
1.94
25%
3.98
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.78
1.08
Fiorentina xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
4%
23.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.08 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma's recent record stands at 25W 12D 15L from 52 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 17L across 52 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Roma on 1.67 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 16W 4D 6L from their last 26 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 9W 6D 11L across their last 26 away games, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.46 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
AS Roma (Home) vs Fiorentina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ AS Roma vs Fiorentina Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 25W 12D 15L in their last 52 games (1.67 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 22W 13D 17L in their last 52 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Fiorentina away?
AS Roma's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.00 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.27 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 24 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
AS Roma have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Oct 2024, when Fiorentina won Fiorentina 5-1 AS Roma.
AS Roma's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AS Roma
2
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Fiorentina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Fiorentina?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 5, Fiorentina have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Fiorentina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2026: AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Fiorentina?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 38%, Fiorentina 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (AS Roma) and 38% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Fiorentina in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Fiorentina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Fiorentina matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of AS Roma's recent matches and 46% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Roma and Fiorentina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of AS Roma's recent games and 38% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Fiorentina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of AS Roma's recent matches and 69% of Fiorentina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 15, as AS Roma and Fiorentina drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.70 xG and Fiorentina 1.08 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.34 / defence 0.89 against Fiorentina attack 1.05 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 51% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 23%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 48%, Fiorentina 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.67 PPG, Fiorentina 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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