AS Roma 1-2 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Empoli meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Empoli have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Empoli have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for AS Roma against 1.20 for Empoli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours AS Roma, who have won 5 of the last 6 meetings against Empoli — a 0D 1W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Empoli winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AS Roma and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
AS Roma — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Empoli — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 62% versus Empoli 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 59% | Empoli 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.47 xG and Empoli 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.060 / defence 0.973 | Empoli attack 0.889 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.113. Data: 39 AS Roma games / 39 Empoli games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 46% | Draw 33% | Empoli 22%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Empoli 4.55. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 60% | Empoli 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 46% | Draw 33% | Empoli 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG AS Roma 1.47 / Empoli 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.060 / def 0.973 | Empoli attack 0.889 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Empoli xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Empoli kick off?
AS Roma vs Empoli kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Empoli?
AS Roma 1 - 2 Empoli.
Where is AS Roma vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Empoli part of?
AS Roma vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 46% chance of winning, Empoli a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both AS Roma and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Empoli?
Record (6 meetings): AS Roma 5W | Draws 0 | Empoli 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Empoli in?
AS Roma (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Empoli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.06) and Empoli's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.89x) against AS Roma's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
46%
2.18
33%
3.07
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.43
0.96
Empoli xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
5%
20.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.96 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma come into this having played 39 games, going 18W 10D 11L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 0.95 PPG from 39 outings (9W 10D 20L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
AS Roma's home form reads 12W 4D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.84 points per game from 19 outings (4W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.74 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Roma have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Empoli in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 18W 10D 11L in their last 39 games (1.64 PPG), while Empoli have gone 9W 10D 20L in their last 39 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Empoli away?
AS Roma's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.11 PPG; Empoli away: 0.84 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Empoli in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 7-0 on 17 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
AS Roma
0
Draws
2
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 6, Empoli have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Empoli 0-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Empoli?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 58%, Empoli 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (AS Roma) and 32% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Empoli in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of AS Roma's recent matches and 37% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of AS Roma's recent games and 32% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Empoli tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Empoli in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Empoli defy the odds to beat AS Roma 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat AS Roma 1-2 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.47 xG and Empoli 0.96 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Empoli outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.06 / defence 0.97 against Empoli attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 46% | Draw 33% | Empoli 22%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Empoli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 59%, Empoli 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Empoli's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Empoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.