AS Roma 1-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (62%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as AS Roma face Cagliari.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
AS Roma welcome Cagliari to Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 16 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, AS Roma have gone 8W 2D 0L — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
AS Roma's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cagliari stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cagliari's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of AS Roma: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Cagliari, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2024, ended AS Roma 0–0 Cagliari — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives AS Roma an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Cagliari in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 80%; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 58% versus Cagliari 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 54% | Cagliari 53%). Note also that Cagliari surrender HT leads in 80% of cases while AS Roma recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 39% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.94 xG and Cagliari 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.431 / defence 0.818 | Cagliari attack 0.846 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.217. AS Roma carry an above-average attack rating of 1.431 — their 1.94 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from AS Roma's last 66 games and Cagliari's last 66.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 62% | Draw 24% | Cagliari 14%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.62 | Draw 4.10 | Cagliari 7.14. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (62%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AS Roma's last 10 home games and Cagliari's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Roma 50% (last 10 home games) | Cagliari 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 16 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 62% | Draw 24% | Cagliari 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG AS Roma 1.94 / Cagliari 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.431 / def 0.818 | Cagliari attack 0.846 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Cagliari xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Cagliari FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Cagliari kick off?
AS Roma vs Cagliari kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Cagliari?
AS Roma 1 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is AS Roma vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Cagliari part of?
AS Roma vs Cagliari is a Serie A fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 62% chance of winning, Cagliari a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AS Roma and Cagliari will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will AS Roma vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.43x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 66 games and Cagliari's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.10
14%
7.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.79
0.84
Cagliari xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
7.14
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
2%
49.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Cagliari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.84 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma come into this having played 66 games, going 31W 16D 19L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 0.94 PPG from 66 outings (14W 20D 32L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
AS Roma's home form reads 21W 4D 7L across their last 32 home games, a 2.09 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.66 points per game from their last 32 away games (4W 9D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.06 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari in 61%.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
AS Roma (Home) vs Cagliari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ AS Roma vs Cagliari Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Cagliari in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 31W 16D 19L in their last 66 games (1.65 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 14W 20D 32L in their last 66 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Cagliari away?
AS Roma's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.09 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.66 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cagliari in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 27 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: AS Roma have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Feb 2024, when AS Roma won AS Roma 4-0 Cagliari.
AS Roma's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
AS Roma
1
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Cagliari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Cagliari?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 7, Cagliari have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Cagliari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 October 2026: AS Roma 4-2 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Cagliari?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 53%, Cagliari 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (AS Roma) and 50% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Cagliari in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Cagliari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Cagliari matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of AS Roma's recent matches and 53% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Roma and Cagliari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of AS Roma's recent games and 50% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Cagliari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of AS Roma's recent matches and 72% of Cagliari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Cagliari 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Cagliari 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.94 xG and Cagliari 0.84 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cagliari landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.43 / defence 0.82 against Cagliari attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 62% | Draw 24% | Cagliari 14%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 54%, Cagliari 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cagliari's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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