AS Roma vs Bologna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AS Roma host Bologna at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 April 2027 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Roma — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Bologna have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, AS Roma have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for AS Roma, 4 for Bologna and 3 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with AS Roma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Bologna in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 32% versus Bologna 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 40% | Bologna 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.63 xG and Bologna 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.450 / defence 0.741 | Bologna attack 0.938 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.450 — their λ of 1.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.741 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 AS Roma games / 40 Bologna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 56% | Draw 25% | Bologna 20%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Bologna 5.00. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Bologna 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Apr 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 56% | Draw 25% | Bologna 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG AS Roma 1.63 / Bologna 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.450 / def 0.741 | Bologna attack 0.938 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Bologna xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Bologna kick off?
AS Roma vs Bologna is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 4 April 2027 at Stadio Olimpico.
Where is AS Roma vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Bologna part of?
AS Roma vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 56% chance of winning, Bologna a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both AS Roma and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Bologna?
Record (10 meetings): AS Roma 3W | Draws 3 | Bologna 4W.
What form are AS Roma and Bologna in?
AS Roma (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.45) and Bologna's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
56%
1.80
25%
4.04
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.48
0.86
Bologna xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
4%
25.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.6 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.86 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Bologna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Roma come into this having played 40 games, going 25W 4D 11L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.40 PPG from 40 outings (16W 8D 16L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AS Roma's home form reads 14W 3D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.70 points per game from 20 outings (10W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.23 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Bologna in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 25W 4D 11L in their last 40 games (1.98 PPG), while Bologna have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Bologna away?
AS Roma's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.25 PPG; Bologna away: 1.70 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Bologna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
AS Roma's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
AS Roma
3
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 3, Bologna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bologna 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 25%, Bologna 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (AS Roma) and 50% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of AS Roma's recent matches and 55% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of AS Roma's recent games and 50% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Bologna tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bologna in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.