AC Milan 2-2 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AC Milan at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Milan vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza to take on AC Milan. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
AC Milan — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, AC Milan have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fiorentina away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AC Milan 1.60 PPG, Fiorentina 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for AC Milan, 3 for Fiorentina and 0 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AC Milan trading profile (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Fiorentina trading profile (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Milan 60% versus Fiorentina 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Milan 63% | Fiorentina 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Milan 1.36 xG and Fiorentina 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Milan attack 1.062 / defence 0.906 | Fiorentina attack 1.000 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.166. Data: 68 AC Milan games / 68 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Milan 42% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 28%. Fair-value odds: AC Milan 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Fiorentina 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AC Milan as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Milan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: AC Milan 60% | Fiorentina 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Milan vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Milan 42% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG AC Milan 1.36 / Fiorentina 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: AC Milan attack 1.062 / def 0.906 | Fiorentina attack 1.000 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
AC Milan xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Fiorentina xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Milan vs Fiorentina kick off?
AC Milan vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
AC Milan 2 - 2 Fiorentina.
Where is AC Milan vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is AC Milan vs Fiorentina part of?
AC Milan vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives AC Milan a 42% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AC Milan and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will AC Milan vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Fiorentina?
Record (7 meetings): AC Milan 4W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 3W.
What form are AC Milan and Fiorentina in?
AC Milan (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AC Milan's attack at 1.06x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus AC Milan's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.38
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
AC Milan xG
Total xG
2.41
1.06
Fiorentina xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
7%
13.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are AC Milan and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for AC Milan and 1.06 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, AC Milan have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 35W 17D 16L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Fiorentina's form line: 32W 15D 21L from 68 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: AC Milan on 1.79 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AC Milan have posted 1.94 PPG from 33 outings (18W 10D 5L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 12W 7D 14L from 33 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Milan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AC Milan are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.59 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Milan have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Milan
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Milan and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
AC Milan have gone 35W 17D 16L in their last 68 games (1.79 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 32W 15D 21L in their last 68 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Milan at home or Fiorentina away?
AC Milan's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Milan at home: 1.94 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.30 PPG.
Have AC Milan or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AC Milan and Fiorentina runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AC Milan's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AC Milan
2
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Milan have won 5, Fiorentina have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AC Milan and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Fiorentina 1-1 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between AC Milan and Fiorentina?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Milan 46%, Fiorentina 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (AC Milan) and 42% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: AC Milan keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Fiorentina in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Milan home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Milan play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of AC Milan's recent matches and 48% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Milan vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of AC Milan's recent games and 42% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Milan and Fiorentina tend to score early?
AC Milan have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Milan and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan and Fiorentina finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.36 xG and Fiorentina 1.06 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Fiorentina outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.06 / defence 0.91 against Fiorentina attack 1.00 / defence 0.99, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Milan 42% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 28%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 63%, Fiorentina 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Milan's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Milan 1.79 PPG, Fiorentina 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AC Milan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.