AC Milan 2-2 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Milan at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AC Milan face Fiorentina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Fiorentina travel to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza to take on AC Milan in Serie A (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
AC Milan — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, AC Milan have posted 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Fiorentina have recorded 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fiorentina away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AC Milan 1.60 PPG, Fiorentina 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for AC Milan, 3 for Fiorentina and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended AC Milan 1–2 Fiorentina — a Fiorentina win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AC Milan trading profile (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Fiorentina trading profile (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Milan 60% versus Fiorentina 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Milan 63% | Fiorentina 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: AC Milan surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Fiorentina have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Milan 1.36 xG and Fiorentina 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Milan attack 1.062 / defence 0.906 | Fiorentina attack 1.000 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.166. Data: built from AC Milan's last 68 games and Fiorentina's last 68.
Result probabilities: AC Milan 42% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 28%. Fair-value odds: AC Milan 2.36 | Draw 3.38 | Fiorentina 3.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AC Milan as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Milan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (AC Milan's last 10 home games and Fiorentina's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AC Milan 60% (last 10 home games) | Fiorentina 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Milan vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, matchday 31 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Milan 42% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG AC Milan 1.36 / Fiorentina 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: AC Milan attack 1.062 / def 0.906 | Fiorentina attack 1.000 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
AC Milan xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Fiorentina xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AC Milan vs Fiorentina FAQs
What time does AC Milan vs Fiorentina kick off?
AC Milan vs Fiorentina kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
AC Milan 2 - 2 Fiorentina.
Where is AC Milan vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is AC Milan vs Fiorentina part of?
AC Milan vs Fiorentina is a Serie A fixture (matchday 31) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives AC Milan a 42% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AC Milan and Fiorentina will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will AC Milan vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AC Milan's attack at 1.06x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus AC Milan's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AC Milan's last 68 games and Fiorentina's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.38
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
AC Milan xG
Total xG
2.41
1.06
Fiorentina xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
7%
13.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AC Milan vs Fiorentina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are AC Milan and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for AC Milan and 1.06 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, AC Milan have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 35W 17D 16L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Fiorentina's form line: 32W 15D 21L from 68 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: AC Milan on 1.79 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AC Milan have posted 1.94 PPG from their last 33 home games (18W 10D 5L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 12W 7D 14L from their last 33 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Milan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AC Milan are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.59 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Milan have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Milan
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
AC Milan (Home) vs Fiorentina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AC Milan
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ AC Milan vs Fiorentina Form FAQs
What form are AC Milan and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
AC Milan have gone 35W 17D 16L in their last 68 games (1.79 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 32W 15D 21L in their last 68 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Milan at home or Fiorentina away?
AC Milan's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Milan at home: 1.94 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.30 PPG.
Have AC Milan or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 11 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AC Milan's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AC Milan
2
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ AC Milan vs Fiorentina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Fiorentina?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AC Milan have won 5, Fiorentina have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AC Milan and Fiorentina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 January 2026: Fiorentina 1-1 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between AC Milan and Fiorentina?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Milan 46%, Fiorentina 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (AC Milan) and 42% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: AC Milan keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Fiorentina in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Milan home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AC Milan vs Fiorentina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AC Milan and Fiorentina matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of AC Milan's recent matches and 48% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AC Milan and Fiorentina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of AC Milan's recent games and 42% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Milan and Fiorentina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of AC Milan's recent matches and 79% of Fiorentina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Milan and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan and Fiorentina finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.36 xG and Fiorentina 1.06 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Fiorentina outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.06 / defence 0.91 against Fiorentina attack 1.00 / defence 0.99, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Milan 42% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 28%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 63%, Fiorentina 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Milan's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Milan 1.79 PPG, Fiorentina 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AC Milan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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