AC Milan 3-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Milan at 46%, yet in-form Bologna provide a compelling counter-argument — this AC Milan vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AC Milan host Bologna at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A (matchday 36). Kick-off is Friday 9 May 2025 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, AC Milan have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, AC Milan have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bologna — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bologna's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bologna — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, AC Milan have won 2, Bologna 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Feb 2025, ended AC Milan 1–2 Bologna — a Bologna win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AC Milan in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bologna in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Milan 59% versus Bologna 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Milan 63% | Bologna 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Milan 1.30 xG and Bologna 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Milan attack 1.114 / defence 0.946 | Bologna attack 0.849 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.119. Data: built from AC Milan's last 73 games and Bologna's last 73.
Result probabilities: AC Milan 46% | Draw 29% | Bologna 25%. Fair-value odds: AC Milan 2.19 | Draw 3.44 | Bologna 3.95. AC Milan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AC Milan at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bologna (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Milan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AC Milan's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AC Milan 70% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Milan vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, matchday 36 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Milan 46% | Draw 29% | Bologna 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG AC Milan 1.30 / Bologna 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: AC Milan attack 1.114 / def 0.946 | Bologna attack 0.849 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
AC Milan xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Bologna xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AC Milan vs Bologna FAQs
What time does AC Milan vs Bologna kick off?
AC Milan vs Bologna kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 9 May 2025 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in AC Milan vs Bologna?
AC Milan 3 - 1 Bologna.
Where is AC Milan vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is AC Milan vs Bologna part of?
AC Milan vs Bologna is a Serie A fixture (matchday 36) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives AC Milan a 46% chance of winning, Bologna a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AC Milan and Bologna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will AC Milan vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AC Milan's attack rating (1.11) and Bologna's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus AC Milan's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AC Milan's last 73 games and Bologna's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.44
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
AC Milan xG
Total xG
2.20
0.90
Bologna xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
7%
14.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AC Milan vs Bologna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are AC Milan and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for AC Milan and 0.90 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Milan vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AC Milan's recent record stands at 38W 18D 17L from 73 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 34W 28D 11L across 73 games — 1.78 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AC Milan on 1.81 PPG, Bologna on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AC Milan have managed 19W 11D 6L from their last 36 home games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 12W 16D 8L across their last 36 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Milan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AC Milan are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.47 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Milan
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
AC Milan (Home) vs Bologna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AC Milan
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ AC Milan vs Bologna Form FAQs
What form are AC Milan and Bologna in coming into this match?
AC Milan have gone 38W 18D 17L in their last 73 games (1.81 PPG), while Bologna have gone 34W 28D 11L in their last 73 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Milan at home or Bologna away?
AC Milan's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Milan at home: 1.89 PPG; Bologna away: 1.44 PPG.
Have AC Milan or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Bologna in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 28 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Feb 2026, when AC Milan won Bologna 0-3 AC Milan.
AC Milan's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AC Milan
3
Draws
2
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ AC Milan vs Bologna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Bologna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AC Milan have won 5, Bologna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AC Milan and Bologna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 October 2026: AC Milan 2-4 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between AC Milan and Bologna?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Milan 47%, Bologna 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AC Milan) and 50% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: AC Milan keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Bologna in 31%; Bologna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Milan home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AC Milan vs Bologna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AC Milan and Bologna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of AC Milan's recent matches and 53% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AC Milan and Bologna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AC Milan's recent games and 50% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Milan and Bologna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of AC Milan's recent matches and 69% of Bologna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Milan cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan beat Bologna 3-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.30 xG and Bologna 0.90 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AC Milan beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.11 / defence 0.95 against Bologna attack 0.85 / defence 1.01, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Milan 46% | Draw 29% | Bologna 25%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 63%, Bologna 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Milan's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Milan 1.81 PPG, Bologna 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Milan win broke the near-deadlock. AC Milan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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