AC Milan 3-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AS Roma at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Milan vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza plays host to AC Milan versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Thursday 6 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AC Milan have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AC Milan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, AC Milan have gone 6W 1D 2L this season (9 games, 2.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma away from home this season: 4W 0D 5L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for AC Milan, 1.60 for AS Roma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: AC Milan 1W, AS Roma 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with AC Milan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
AC Milan — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
AS Roma — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Milan 63% versus AS Roma 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Milan 53% | AS Roma 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Milan 1.33 xG and AS Roma 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Milan attack 0.974 / defence 0.957 | AS Roma attack 0.985 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.493. Data: 19 AC Milan games / 19 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Milan 35% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 39%. Fair-value odds: AC Milan 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | AS Roma 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AC Milan 44% | AS Roma 56%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Milan vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Milan 35% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG AC Milan 1.33 / AS Roma 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: AC Milan attack 0.974 / def 0.957 | AS Roma attack 0.985 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.493 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
AC Milan xG
Expected Goals
1.41
AS Roma xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Milan vs AS Roma kick off?
AC Milan vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 6 January 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in AC Milan vs AS Roma?
AC Milan 3 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is AC Milan vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is AC Milan vs AS Roma part of?
AC Milan vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AC Milan vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives AC Milan a 35% chance of winning, AS Roma a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both AC Milan and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will AC Milan vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and AS Roma?
Record (1 meetings): AC Milan 1W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 0W.
What form are AC Milan and AS Roma in?
AC Milan (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AC Milan's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.98x) against AC Milan's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
35%
2.84
26%
3.84
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
AC Milan xG
Total xG
2.74
1.41
AS Roma xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Milan vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are AC Milan and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for AC Milan and 1.41 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Milan vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AC Milan's recent record stands at 13W 3D 3L from 19 games, a 2.21 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for AC Milan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 10W 2D 7L across 19 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AC Milan by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AS Roma heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AC Milan have managed 6W 1D 2L from 9 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 4W 0D 5L across 9 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Milan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AC Milan are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.63 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Milan have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: AS Roma in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Milan
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Milan and AS Roma in coming into this match?
AC Milan have gone 13W 3D 3L in their last 19 games (2.21 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 10W 2D 7L in their last 19 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Milan at home or AS Roma away?
AC Milan's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Milan at home: 2.11 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.33 PPG.
Have AC Milan or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, AS Roma in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Milan have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AC Milan
4
Draws
1
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Milan have won 5, AS Roma have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AC Milan and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when AS Roma 1-1 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between AC Milan and AS Roma?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Milan 44%, AS Roma 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (AC Milan) and 67% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AC Milan keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Milan home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Milan play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of AC Milan's recent matches and 56% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Milan vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of AC Milan's recent games and 67% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Milan and AS Roma tend to score early?
AC Milan have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Milan cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AS Roma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan beat AS Roma 3-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.33 xG and AS Roma 1.41 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AC Milan beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against AS Roma attack 0.98 / defence 1.17, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Milan 35% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 39%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual AC Milan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 53%, AS Roma 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Milan's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.68. Form held, and they took the win. AC Milan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.