Waterford 1-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waterford at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. make the trip to Regional Sports Centre to face Waterford in Premier Division, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Friday 10 July 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Waterford (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waterford at Regional Sports Centre this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Waterford against 1.50 for St Patrick's Athl.. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, St Patrick's Athl. have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Waterford's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2026, ended 1–4 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. St Patrick's Athl. have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Waterford — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 59% versus St Patrick's Athl. 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 56% | St Patrick's Athl. 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.36 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 1.020 / defence 1.078 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.787 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.281. Data: 59 Waterford games / 59 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 42% | Draw 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 29%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waterford are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waterford if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Waterford 50% | St Patrick's Athl. 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 10 Jul 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 42% | Draw 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Waterford 1.36 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 1.020 / def 1.078 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.787 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Waterford (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.09
St Patrick's Athl. xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 July 2026 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Waterford 1 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 42% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (8 meetings): Waterford 1W | Draws 2 | St Patrick's Athl. 5W.
What form are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Waterford (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waterford's attack at 1.02x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St Patrick's Athl.'s attack (0.79x) against Waterford's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
42%
2.40
30%
3.38
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.45
1.09
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
7%
13.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Waterford and 1.09 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Waterford's recent record stands at 15W 14D 30L from 59 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Waterford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 25W 18D 16L across 59 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours St Patrick's Athl. by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waterford heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Waterford have managed 8W 9D 12L from 29 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 8W 9D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St Patrick's Athl.'s season.
Attack vs Defence
Waterford are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.36 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Blended
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 15W 14D 30L in their last 59 games (1.00 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 25W 18D 16L in their last 59 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Waterford's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.14 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Waterford or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 20 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waterford have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Waterford
3
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 0-2 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 59%, St Patrick's Athl. 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Waterford) and 34% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. in 38%; Waterford have failed to score in 28% of games; St Patrick's Athl. in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Waterford's recent matches and 34% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Waterford's recent games and 34% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. finished level at 1-1 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.36 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.09 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 1.02 / defence 1.08 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.79 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 42% | Draw 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 29%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 56%, St Patrick's Athl. 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.