Waterford 0-7 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Drogheda United travel to Waterford Regional Sports Centre to take on Waterford. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 May 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.74 xG and Drogheda United 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.746 / defence 1.280 | Drogheda United attack 1.050 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 0.758 / away 1.192. Waterford's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Drogheda United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Waterford's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Waterford games / 9 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 16% | Draw 28% | Drogheda United 56%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 6.25 | Draw 3.57 | Drogheda United 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Drogheda United (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Drogheda United are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 16% | Draw 28% | Drogheda United 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Waterford 0.74 / Drogheda United 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.746 / def 1.280 | Drogheda United attack 1.050 / def 1.308 | league avg home 0.758 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Drogheda United xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Drogheda United kick off?
Waterford vs Drogheda United kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 May 2021 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Drogheda United?
Waterford 0 - 7 Drogheda United.
Where is Waterford vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Drogheda United part of?
Waterford vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 16% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 56% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Waterford and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waterford and Drogheda United in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Waterford's attack at 0.75x the league average against Drogheda United's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Drogheda United's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 0-2 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
16%
6.45
28%
3.55
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.34
1.60
Drogheda United xG
6.45
16%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
3%
31.99
27%
3.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 15.4 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Waterford and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Waterford and 1.60 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Drogheda United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Pre-Season
Drogheda United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waterford and Drogheda United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Waterford's record when hosting Drogheda United specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Waterford
4
Draws
3
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 3, Drogheda United have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Drogheda United 3-3 Waterford.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Drogheda United run riot with a 0-7 hammering of Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United beat Waterford 0-7 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.74 xG and Drogheda United 1.60 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-7 for 7 actual goals. Drogheda United outscored their 1.60 projection by 5.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.75 / defence 1.28 against Drogheda United attack 1.05 / defence 1.31, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 16% | Draw 28% | Drogheda United 56%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.