Waterford 3-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bohemians at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 27 as Waterford welcome Bohemians to Regional Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Waterford have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waterford's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Regional Sports Centre this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bohemians — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Waterford) versus 1.90 (Bohemians). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Waterford register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bohemians in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Waterford, 3 for Bohemians and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Waterford trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bohemians trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 58% versus Bohemians 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 53% | Bohemians 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.28 xG and Bohemians 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 1.000 / defence 0.969 | Bohemians attack 1.330 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.220. Bohemians have an above-average attack strength of 1.330 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Waterford games / 62 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 28% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 41%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Bohemians 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Waterford 60% | Bohemians 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 28% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 61% | xG Waterford 1.28 / Bohemians 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 1.000 / def 0.969 | Bohemians attack 1.330 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Bohemians xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Bohemians kick off?
Waterford vs Bohemians kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Bohemians?
Waterford 3 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Waterford vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Bohemians part of?
Waterford vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 28% chance of winning, Bohemians a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Waterford and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Bohemians?
Record (9 meetings): Waterford 4W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 3W.
What form are Waterford and Bohemians in?
Waterford (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Bohemians (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waterford's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
28%
3.62
32%
3.16
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.85
1.57
Bohemians xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
6%
17.45
11%
8.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Waterford and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Waterford and 1.57 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Waterford have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 16W 16D 30L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Waterford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians's form line: 28W 14D 20L from 62 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bohemians are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waterford.
Venue Form
On home soil, Waterford have posted 1.19 PPG from 31 outings (9W 10D 12L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 14W 6D 11L from 31 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Waterford are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.44 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Bohemians in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Blended
Bohemians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 16W 16D 30L in their last 62 games (1.03 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 28W 14D 20L in their last 62 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Bohemians away?
Bohemians's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.19 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Waterford or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Bohemians in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2025, when Bohemians won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waterford's record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Waterford
2
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 5, Bohemians have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Waterford 3-1 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Bohemians?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 58%, Bohemians 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Waterford) and 55% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Bohemians in 39%; Waterford have failed to score in 26% of games; Bohemians in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Waterford's recent matches and 45% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waterford vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Waterford's recent games and 55% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Bohemians tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waterford cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bohemians.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Bohemians 3-1 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.28 xG and Bohemians 1.57 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Waterford beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 1.00 / defence 0.97 against Bohemians attack 1.33 / defence 0.90, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 28% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 41%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Waterford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 53%, Bohemians 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Waterford winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.