Waterford 0-3 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waterford at 41%, yet in-form Bohemians provide a compelling counter-argument — this Waterford vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Waterford welcome Bohemians to Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division (matchday 5). Kick-off is Friday 7 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Waterford have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Waterford's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Waterford are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Bohemians's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Waterford's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Waterford's games and 60% of Bohemians's (from Waterford's last 10 home games and Bohemians's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Waterford have won 1, Bohemians 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2024, ended Waterford 1–1 Bohemians — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Waterford trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bohemians trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 51% versus Bohemians 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 51% | Bohemians 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.22 xG and Bohemians 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.902 / defence 1.017 | Bohemians attack 0.877 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.053. Data: built from Waterford's last 40 games and Bohemians's last 40. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Waterford 41% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 27%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.43 | Draw 3.11 | Bohemians 3.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waterford are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bohemians (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waterford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Waterford's last 10 home games and Bohemians's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Waterford 60% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Waterford 40 games, Bohemians 40) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 5 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 7 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 41% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Waterford 1.22 / Bohemians 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.902 / def 1.017 | Bohemians attack 0.877 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Waterford (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Bohemians xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waterford vs Bohemians FAQs
What time does Waterford vs Bohemians kick off?
Waterford vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 7 March 2025 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Bohemians?
Waterford 0 - 3 Bohemians.
Where is Waterford vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Bohemians part of?
Waterford vs Bohemians is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 5) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 41% chance of winning, Bohemians a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Waterford and Bohemians will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Waterford vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waterford's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waterford's last 40 games and Bohemians's last 40, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.11
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.16
0.94
Bohemians xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waterford vs Bohemians Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Waterford and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Waterford and 0.94 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Waterford have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 14W 6D 17L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 11W 12D 14L from 37 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waterford on 1.30 PPG, Bohemians on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Waterford have posted 1.39 PPG from their last 18 home games (7W 4D 7L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 6W 6D 6L from their last 18 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Waterford are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.16 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
Waterford (Home) vs Bohemians (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waterford
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Waterford vs Bohemians Form FAQs
What form are Waterford and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 14W 6D 17L in their last 37 games (1.30 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 11W 12D 14L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Bohemians away?
Waterford's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.39 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Mar 2025, when Bohemians won Waterford 0-3 Bohemians.
Waterford's record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Waterford
2
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Waterford vs Bohemians H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Bohemians?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Waterford have won 4, Bohemians have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Bohemians last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Bohemians 2-1 Waterford.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waterford see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 61%, Bohemians 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Waterford) and 33% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Bohemians in 33%; Waterford have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waterford vs Bohemians Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waterford and Bohemians matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Waterford's games and 50% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Waterford and Bohemians matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Waterford's recent games and 33% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Bohemians matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Waterford's recent matches and 61% of Bohemians's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Waterford 0-3 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.22 xG and Bohemians 0.94 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Waterford fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bohemians outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.90 / defence 1.02 against Bohemians attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 41% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 27%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 51%, Bohemians 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waterford 1.30 PPG, Bohemians 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.