UCD 0-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Shamrock Rovers (67%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as UCD face Shamrock Rovers.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

UCD and Shamrock Rovers meet at UCD Bowl in Premier Division (matchday 31). This fixture gets under way on Friday 22 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time.

Current Form

UCD's record over their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

UCD's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.

Shamrock Rovers have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Shamrock Rovers's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shamrock Rovers are 1.50 PPG clear of UCD over their recent games (1.90 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head sample leans to Shamrock Rovers, who have 7 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Jun 2023, ended UCD 0–4 Shamrock Rovers — a Shamrock Rovers win.

Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 7 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading

UCD half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.

Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 42% versus Shamrock Rovers 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 53% | Shamrock Rovers 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: UCD surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Shamrock Rovers have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.66 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.625 / defence 1.592 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.103 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.099. UCD's attack rating of 0.625 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.66. Shamrock Rovers bring a tight defence (rating 0.706, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling UCD's projected output down. UCD's defence rating of 1.592 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shamrock Rovers's projected output up. Data: built from UCD's last 66 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 66.

Result probabilities: UCD 12% | Draw 21% | Shamrock Rovers 67%. Fair-value odds: UCD 8.69 | Draw 4.73 | Shamrock Rovers 1.48. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (67%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Shamrock Rovers are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: UCD 40% (last 10 home games) | Shamrock Rovers 30% (last 10 away games).

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