UCD 1-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as UCD take on Bohemians.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
UCD and Bohemians meet at UCD Bowl in Premier Division, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
UCD (all games): 1W 0D 0L across 1 Premier Division fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. UCD have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. UCD's 3.00 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Bohemians's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — UCD register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Bohemians in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.69 xG and Bohemians 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.599 / defence 0.897 | Bohemians attack 0.977 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 0.970. UCD's attack strength of 0.599 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 UCD games / 41 Bohemians games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: UCD 25% | Draw 41% | Bohemians 34%. Fair-value odds: UCD 4.00 | Draw 2.44 | Bohemians 2.94. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.54. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.54 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — UCD's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Final Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 31% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 25% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.54 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (5 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 25% | Draw 41% | Bohemians 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 31% | xG UCD 0.69 / Bohemians 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.599 / def 0.897 | Bohemians attack 0.977 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.214 / away 0.970 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
UCD xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Bohemians xG
31%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs Bohemians kick off?
UCD vs Bohemians kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 18 March 2022 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Bohemians?
UCD 1 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is UCD vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Bohemians part of?
UCD vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 25% chance of winning, Bohemians a 34% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both UCD and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are UCD and Bohemians in?
UCD (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from UCD's attack rating (0.60) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.98x) against UCD's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
The sample (5/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 23.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
25%
4.03
41%
2.44
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.3%
Away win
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
UCD xG
Total xG
1.54
0.85
Bohemians xG
4.03
25%
Home win
2.44
41%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.24
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
50%
1.99
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.5 | 18.3 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.6 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.2%.
How many goals are UCD and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for UCD and 0.85 for Bohemians, a combined total of 1.54.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
UCD come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for UCD, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
UCD carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Bohemians — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
UCD are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. UCD's scoring rate against Bohemians's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: UCD have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Bohemians in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Early Season
Bohemians
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and Bohemians in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Bohemians have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 3-0 on 29 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, UCD have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
UCD
2
Draws
6
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Bohemians?
From 8 meetings on record, UCD have won 0, Bohemians have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2023, when UCD 1-2 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of UCD's games and 100% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is UCD vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of UCD's recent games and 0% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do UCD and Bohemians tend to score early?
UCD have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
UCD and Bohemians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
UCD and Bohemians finished level at 1-1 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 0.69 xG and Bohemians 0.85 xG, a combined 1.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.60 / defence 0.90 against Bohemians attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 5/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it UCD 25% | Draw 41% | Bohemians 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 100%, Bohemians 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, UCD arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. UCD managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.