St Patrick's Athl. 1-2 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 2 as St Patrick's Athl. welcome Sligo Rovers to Richmond Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sligo Rovers stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sligo Rovers's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (St Patrick's Athl.) versus 1.20 (Sligo Rovers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 56% versus Sligo Rovers 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Sligo Rovers 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.40 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.025 / defence 1.039 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.971 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.175. Data: 37 St Patrick's Athl. games / 36 Sligo Rovers games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 42% | Draw 26% | Sligo Rovers 32%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Sligo Rovers 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Sligo Rovers 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 42% | Draw 26% | Sligo Rovers 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.40 / Sligo Rovers 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.025 / def 1.039 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.971 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sligo Rovers xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 25 February 2022 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 2 Sligo Rovers.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 42% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St Patrick's Athl.'s attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Sligo Rovers's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.81
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.59
1.19
Sligo Rovers xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
8%
12.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.19 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 18W 8D 10L record — W-D-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 16W 9D 11L from 36 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.72 PPG, Sligo Rovers on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 2.11 PPG from 18 outings (12W 2D 4L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 8W 4D 6L from 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.19 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Sligo Rovers in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 18W 8D 10L in their last 36 games (1.72 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 16W 9D 11L in their last 36 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Sligo Rovers away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 2.11 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 1.56 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Sligo Rovers specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
St Patrick's Athl.
1
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 7, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Sligo Rovers 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 33% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Sligo Rovers in 33%; Sligo Rovers in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Sligo Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 39% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 33% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sligo Rovers defy the odds to beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-2 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.40 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.19 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sligo Rovers outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.02 / defence 1.04 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.97 / defence 0.97, drawn from 37/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 42% | Draw 26% | Sligo Rovers 32%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Sligo Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 50%, Sligo Rovers 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.72 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sligo Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.