St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 39%, yet in-form Shamrock Rovers provide a compelling counter-argument — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Shamrock Rovers at Richmond Park in Premier Division (matchday 9). Kick-off is Friday 5 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Shamrock Rovers have posted 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shamrock Rovers are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 46% versus Shamrock Rovers 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Shamrock Rovers 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.131 / defence 0.832 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.004 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.060. Data: built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 44 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 43.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 39% | Draw 33% | Shamrock Rovers 29%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.59 | Draw 3.05 | Shamrock Rovers 3.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shamrock Rovers (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 home games and Shamrock Rovers's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: St Patrick's Athl. 50% (last 10 home games) | Shamrock Rovers 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 9 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 5 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 39% | Draw 33% | Shamrock Rovers 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 / Shamrock Rovers 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.131 / def 0.832 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.004 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Shamrock Rovers xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers FAQs
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 5 April 2024 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. 2 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 9) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 39% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.13) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 44 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
39%
2.59
33%
3.05
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
1.96
0.89
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
10%
10.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 12.4 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.89 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 37W 12D 23L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 44W 19D 9L from 72 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71 PPG, Shamrock Rovers on 2.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 1.83 PPG from their last 36 home games (20W 6D 10L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 15W 14D 7L from their last 36 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shamrock Rovers's recent record.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.78 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Shamrock Rovers in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl. (Home) vs Shamrock Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers Form FAQs
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 23L in their last 72 games (1.71 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 44W 19D 9L in their last 72 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.83 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.64 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 May 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won Shamrock Rovers 4-0 St Patrick's Athl..
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
St Patrick's Athl.
1
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St Patrick's Athl. have won 4, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 39%, Shamrock Rovers 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 31% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 50%; Shamrock Rovers in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 33% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 31% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 47% of Shamrock Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Shamrock Rovers 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Shamrock Rovers 2-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.89 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.13 / defence 0.83 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.00 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 39% | Draw 33% | Shamrock Rovers 29%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Shamrock Rovers 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 2.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.