St Patrick's Athl. 3-2 Longford Town – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Longford Town encounter.

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Analysis

Longford Town make the trip to Richmond Park to face St Patrick's Athl. in Premier Division (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Friday 3 September 2021 at 20:45 UK time.

Form

St Patrick's Athl. (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Longford Town's record over their last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Longford Town away from home: 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in St Patrick's Athl.'s favour (1.90 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 0 for Longford Town and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 12 Jun 2021, ended St Patrick's Athl. 3–1 Longford Town — a St Patrick's Athl. win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

St Patrick's Athl. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 90% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Longford Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 64% versus Longford Town 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 52% | Longford Town 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.91 xG and Longford Town 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.236 / defence 0.895 | Longford Town attack 0.659 / defence 1.495. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.211. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.495 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output up. Longford Town's attack rating of 0.659 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Data: built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 25 games and Longford Town's last 25.

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 66% | Draw 21% | Longford Town 13%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.52 | Draw 4.75 | Longford Town 7.59. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (66%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: St Patrick's Athl. 40% (last 10 home games) | Longford Town 60% (last 10 away games).

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