St Patrick's Athl. 4-1 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Finn Harps make the trip to Richmond Park to face St Patrick's Athl. in Premier Division, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Monday 21 June 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — St Patrick's Athl. lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2021, ended 2–0 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.38 xG and Finn Harps 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.153 / defence 0.896 | Finn Harps attack 0.718 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.351. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 St Patrick's Athl. games / 16 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 48% | Draw 30% | Finn Harps 23%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Finn Harps 4.35. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Monday 21 Jun 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 48% | Draw 30% | Finn Harps 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.38 / Finn Harps 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.153 / def 0.896 | Finn Harps attack 0.718 / def 1.227 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Finn Harps xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 21 June 2021 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps?
St Patrick's Athl. 4 - 1 Finn Harps.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 48% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Finn Harps?
Record (1 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 1W | Draws 0 | Finn Harps 0W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Finn Harps in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates St Patrick's Athl.'s attack at 1.15x the league average against Finn Harps's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Finn Harps's attack (0.72x) against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
48%
2.10
30%
3.37
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.25
0.87
Finn Harps xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
6%
17.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.7 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.87 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 4-1 on 21 Jun 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Finn Harps — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
1
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Finn Harps?
From 8 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Finn Harps have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2022, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Finn Harps?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Finn Harps.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Finn Harps 4-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.38 xG and Finn Harps 0.87 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.15 / defence 0.90 against Finn Harps attack 0.72 / defence 1.23, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 48% | Draw 30% | Finn Harps 23%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.