St Patrick's Athl. 0-2 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Dundalk travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 May 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.91 xG and Dundalk 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.253 / defence 0.931 | Dundalk attack 0.892 / defence 1.595. League average goals — home 0.954 / away 1.268. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.595 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 St Patrick's Athl. games / 13 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Draw 22% | Dundalk 20%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Dundalk 5.00. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 28 May 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Draw 22% | Dundalk 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.91 / Dundalk 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.253 / def 0.931 | Dundalk attack 0.892 / def 1.595 | league avg home 0.954 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Dundalk xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 28 May 2021 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
St Patrick's Athl. 0 - 2 Dundalk.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 57% chance of winning, Dundalk a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St Patrick's Athl.'s attack at 1.25x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.45
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.96
1.05
Dundalk xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
3%
32.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.05 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
3
Draws
2
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Dundalk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dundalk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over St Patrick's Athl..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-2 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.91 xG and Dundalk 1.05 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Dundalk outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.25 / defence 0.93 against Dundalk attack 0.89 / defence 1.59, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Draw 22% | Dundalk 20%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Dundalk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.