St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Drogheda United at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 July 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 8W 0D 2L at Richmond Park — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Drogheda United have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Drogheda United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Drogheda United's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St Patrick's Athl. 1.70 PPG, Drogheda United 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Drogheda United trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St Patrick's Athl. 60% and Drogheda United 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 45% | Drogheda United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.63 xG and Drogheda United 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.228 / defence 0.894 | Drogheda United attack 1.065 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.231. Drogheda United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 St Patrick's Athl. games / 20 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 48% | Draw 25% | Drogheda United 27%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Drogheda United 3.70. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Drogheda United 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 16 Jul 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 48% | Draw 25% | Drogheda United 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.63 / Drogheda United 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.228 / def 0.894 | Drogheda United attack 1.065 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Drogheda United xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 16 July 2021 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
St Patrick's Athl. 2 - 0 Drogheda United.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 48% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Drogheda United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.23) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Drogheda United's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
48%
2.10
25%
3.95
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.80
1.17
Drogheda United xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
5%
18.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.6 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.17 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 20 games, going 11W 5D 4L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Drogheda United sit at 1.50 PPG from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Drogheda United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.90 PPG, Drogheda United on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 8W 0D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.90 PPG overall — St Patrick's Athl. are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Drogheda United have taken 1.50 points per game from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.70 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St Patrick's Athl. have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Drogheda United in 65%.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
Drogheda United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 11W 5D 4L in their last 20 games (1.90 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 8W 6D 6L in their last 20 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Drogheda United away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 2.40 PPG; Drogheda United away: 1.50 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Drogheda United been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Drogheda United in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl. go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Drogheda United specifically: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
St Patrick's Athl.
4
Draws
0
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, Drogheda United have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 40%, Drogheda United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 60% (Drogheda United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Drogheda United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 60% of Drogheda United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s matches and 60% of Drogheda United's.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Drogheda United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Drogheda United 2-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.63 xG and Drogheda United 1.17 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Drogheda United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.23 / defence 0.89 against Drogheda United attack 1.06 / defence 1.27, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 48% | Draw 25% | Drogheda United 27%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 45%, Drogheda United 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Drogheda United's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.90 PPG, Drogheda United 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.