St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Bohemians at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 6W 2D 2L at Richmond Park — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bohemians — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bohemians's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — St Patrick's Athl. at 1.60 PPG versus Bohemians's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bohemians trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 46% versus Bohemians 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Bohemians 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.38 xG and Bohemians 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.036 / defence 0.968 | Bohemians attack 0.931 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.083. Data: 37 St Patrick's Athl. games / 37 Bohemians games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 44% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 24%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Bohemians 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Bohemians 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 23 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 44% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.38 / Bohemians 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.036 / def 0.968 | Bohemians attack 0.931 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Bohemians xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 23 February 2024 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
St Patrick's Athl. 0 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 44% chance of winning, Bohemians a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.04) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
44%
2.28
32%
3.11
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.36
0.98
Bohemians xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
6%
16.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.98 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 72 games, going 37W 12D 23L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.44 PPG from 72 outings (28W 20D 24L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71 PPG, Bohemians on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 20W 6D 10L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.22 points per game from 36 outings (11W 11D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.36 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 23L in their last 72 games (1.71 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 28W 20D 24L in their last 72 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Bohemians away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.83 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.22 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bohemians in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St Patrick's Athl.
5
Draws
2
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Bohemians have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Bohemians 2-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Bohemians see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 39%, Bohemians 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 36% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 50% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 36% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians defy the odds to beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.38 xG and Bohemians 0.98 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Bohemians attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 37/37 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 44% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 24%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Bohemians 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG, Bohemians 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.