Sligo Rovers 0-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sligo Rovers vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derry City make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 April 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.08 xG and Derry City 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 1.034 / defence 0.996 | Derry City attack 0.620 / defence 1.448. League average goals — home 0.719 / away 1.160. Derry City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.448 — this is suppressing Sligo Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Sligo Rovers games / 6 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 43% | Draw 34% | Derry City 23%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | Derry City 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Derry City's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sligo Rovers are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 43% | Draw 34% | Derry City 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Sligo Rovers 1.08 / Derry City 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 1.034 / def 0.996 | Derry City attack 0.620 / def 1.448 | league avg home 0.719 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Derry City xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Derry City kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 24 April 2021 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Sligo Rovers 0 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Derry City part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 43% chance of winning, Derry City a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Derry City in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sligo Rovers's attack rating (1.03) and Derry City's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.62x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
43%
2.34
34%
2.93
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
1.79
0.72
Derry City xG
2.34
43%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 11.9 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.72 for Derry City, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Pre-Season
Derry City
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 22 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sligo Rovers
3
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 2, Derry City have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Derry City 2-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat Sligo Rovers 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Sligo Rovers 0-1 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.08 xG and Derry City 0.72 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sligo Rovers fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Derry City attack 0.62 / defence 1.45, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 43% | Draw 34% | Derry City 23%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Derry City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.