Sligo Rovers 2-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Sligo Rovers take on Derry City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derry City make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Thursday 4 July 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
Sligo Rovers's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sligo Rovers's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Derry City have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Derry City have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Derry City are 0.70 PPG clear of Sligo Rovers over their recent games (2.10 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Sligo Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 43% versus Derry City 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 48% | Derry City 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 0.76 xG and Derry City 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.829 / defence 0.923 | Derry City attack 0.966 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 0.952. Derry City bring a tight defence (rating 0.731, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Sligo Rovers's projected output down. Data: built from Sligo Rovers's last 58 games and Derry City's last 60.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 30% | Draw 35% | Derry City 35%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 3.35 | Draw 2.84 | Derry City 2.86. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS Yes probability 30% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Sligo Rovers's lower xG of 0.76 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 78% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sligo Rovers's last 10 home games and Derry City's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sligo Rovers 30% (last 10 home games) | Derry City 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 23 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Thursday 4 July 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 30% | Draw 35% | Derry City 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% (Under 78%) | BTTS Yes 30% (No 70%) | xG Sligo Rovers 0.76 / Derry City 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.829 / def 0.923 | Derry City attack 0.966 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.251 / away 0.952 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Derry City xG
30%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Derry City FAQs
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Derry City kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Thursday 4 July 2024 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Sligo Rovers 2 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Derry City part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 23) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 30% chance of winning, Derry City a 35% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Derry City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (70%).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (78%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sligo Rovers's attack rating (0.83) and Derry City's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.97x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Sligo Rovers's last 58 games and Derry City's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.35
35%
2.84
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
1.61
0.85
Derry City xG
3.35
30%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.29
70%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
16%
6.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 17.0 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Derry City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.7%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.85 for Derry City, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Sligo Rovers have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 17W 14D 27L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Derry City's form line: 29W 18D 11L from 58 games, 1.81 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Derry City are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sligo Rovers.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sligo Rovers have posted 1.43 PPG from their last 28 home games (11W 7D 10L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 12W 10D 6L from their last 28 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.60 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Blended
Derry City
Blended
Sligo Rovers (Home) vs Derry City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sligo Rovers
Blended
Derry City
Blended
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Derry City Form FAQs
What form are Sligo Rovers and Derry City in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 17W 14D 27L in their last 58 games (1.12 PPG), while Derry City have gone 29W 18D 11L in their last 58 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.43 PPG; Derry City away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Derry City in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Sligo Rovers and Derry City, the earliest from July 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won Derry City 3-0 Sligo Rovers on 22 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sligo Rovers
3
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Derry City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Derry City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sligo Rovers have won 2, Derry City have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Derry City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Sligo Rovers 2-2 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 29% (Sligo Rovers) and 39% (Derry City) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Sligo Rovers) and 43% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Derry City in 46%; Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 50% of games; Derry City in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Derry City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sligo Rovers and Derry City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 39% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sligo Rovers and Derry City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 43% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Derry City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 64% of Derry City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sligo Rovers defy the odds to beat Derry City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Derry City 2-1 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 0.76 xG and Derry City 0.85 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sligo Rovers beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.83 / defence 0.92 against Derry City attack 0.97 / defence 0.73, drawn from 58/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 30% | Draw 35% | Derry City 35%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sligo Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 48%, Derry City 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Sligo Rovers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.