Shelbourne 2-0 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs UCD fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shelbourne and UCD meet at Tolka Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Monday 23 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
UCD have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Premier Division outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. UCD have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Shelbourne, 0 for UCD and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.63 xG and UCD 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.759 / defence 1.273 | UCD attack 0.729 / defence 1.663. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.249. Shelbourne's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.63 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. UCD bring a strong defensive rating of 1.663 — this is suppressing Shelbourne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Shelbourne games / 16 UCD games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 48% | Draw 25% | UCD 27%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | UCD 3.70. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Monday 23 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 48% | Draw 25% | UCD 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Shelbourne 1.63 / UCD 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.759 / def 1.273 | UCD attack 0.729 / def 1.663 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.16
UCD xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs UCD kick off?
Shelbourne vs UCD kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 23 May 2022 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs UCD?
Shelbourne 2 - 0 UCD.
Where is Shelbourne vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs UCD part of?
Shelbourne vs UCD is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 48% chance of winning, UCD a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Shelbourne and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and UCD?
Record (1 meetings): Shelbourne 0W | Draws 1 | UCD 0W.
What form are Shelbourne and UCD in?
UCD (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W. UCD away split: 3.00 PPG from 1 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shelbourne's attack at 0.76x the league average against UCD's defence at 1.66x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — UCD's attack (0.73x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
48%
2.08
25%
3.98
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.79
1.16
UCD xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
5%
19.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.16 for UCD, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs UCD?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Pre-Season
UCD
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shelbourne have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shelbourne won 0-4 on 7 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against UCD — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Shelbourne
3
Draws
0
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and UCD?
From 8 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 5, UCD have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2023, when Shelbourne 3-2 UCD.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and UCD?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shelbourne cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat UCD 2-0 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.63 xG and UCD 1.16 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. UCD landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.76 / defence 1.27 against UCD attack 0.73 / defence 1.66, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 48% | Draw 25% | UCD 27%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.