Shelbourne 0-3 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 1 as Shelbourne welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tolka Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.18 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.055 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.097. Data: 0 Shelbourne games / 36 St Patrick's Athl. games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 33% | Draw 27% | St Patrick's Athl. 40%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 18 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 33% | Draw 27% | St Patrick's Athl. 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Shelbourne 1.18 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.055 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.33
St Patrick's Athl. xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 18 February 2022 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Shelbourne 0 - 3 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 33% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. St Patrick's Athl. away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.85) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Shelbourne's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
33%
3.03
27%
3.73
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.51
1.33
St Patrick's Athl. xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.46
12%
8.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.33 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Pre-Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shelbourne's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shelbourne
2
Draws
2
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 6, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Shelbourne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Shelbourne 0-3 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.18 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.33 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Shelbourne fell 1.2 short of their projected output. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.05 / defence 0.95, drawn from 0/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 33% | Draw 27% | St Patrick's Athl. 40%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.