Shelbourne 2-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shelbourne face St Patrick's Athl..
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Shelbourne welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tolka Park in Premier Division (matchday 29). Kick-off is Friday 1 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shelbourne have gone 4W 5D 1L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shelbourne's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shelbourne at 1.70 PPG versus St Patrick's Athl.'s 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Shelbourne's games and 60% of St Patrick's Athl.'s (from Shelbourne's last 10 home games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Shelbourne in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 45% versus St Patrick's Athl. 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 34% | St Patrick's Athl. 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Shelbourne surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while St Patrick's Athl. have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.18 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.878 / defence 0.927 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.197 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.082. Data: built from Shelbourne's last 64 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 64.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 36% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 37%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.80 | Draw 3.60 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Shelbourne 80% (last 10 home games) | St Patrick's Athl. 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 29 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 1 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 36% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Shelbourne 1.18 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.878 / def 0.927 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.197 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.20
St Patrick's Athl. xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. FAQs
What time does Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 1 September 2023 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Shelbourne 2 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 29) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 36% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.88) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Shelbourne's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shelbourne's last 64 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
36%
2.80
28%
3.60
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.38
1.20
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
11%
9.31
11%
8.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.20 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shelbourne's recent record stands at 20W 24D 20L from 64 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 33W 12D 19L across 64 games — 1.73 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours St Patrick's Athl. by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shelbourne heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shelbourne have managed 10W 13D 9L from their last 32 home games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 15W 6D 11L across their last 32 away games, a 1.59 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Shelbourne are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.67 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Shelbourne (Home) vs St Patrick's Athl. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shelbourne
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. Form FAQs
What form are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 20W 24D 20L in their last 64 games (1.31 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 33W 12D 19L in their last 64 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.34 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shelbourne's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shelbourne
2
Draws
3
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shelbourne have won 5, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: St Patrick's Athl. 1-2 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 50%, St Patrick's Athl. 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Shelbourne) and 59% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 56% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Shelbourne's recent games and 59% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 72% of St Patrick's Athl.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shelbourne defy the odds to beat St Patrick's Athl. 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.18 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.20 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shelbourne beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.88 / defence 0.93 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.20 / defence 0.94, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 36% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 37%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Shelbourne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 34%, St Patrick's Athl. 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Shelbourne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.