Shelbourne 2-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to Tolka Park to face Shelbourne in Premier Division, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 3 July 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Shelbourne (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shelbourne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shelbourne at Tolka Park this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tolka Park this season.
Dundalk have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.40 for Dundalk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Shelbourne register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Dundalk in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Shelbourne have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 9 meetings, with Dundalk managing just 1 victories and 3 draws shared.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Shelbourne winning.
The historical record gives Shelbourne a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shelbourne 73% and Dundalk 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 68% | Dundalk 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.44 xG and Dundalk 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.896 / defence 1.181 | Dundalk attack 0.988 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.287. Data: 59 Shelbourne games / 22 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 35% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 38%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Dundalk 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 70% | Dundalk 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 3 Jul 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 35% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Shelbourne 1.44 / Dundalk 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.896 / def 1.181 | Dundalk attack 0.988 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Dundalk xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Dundalk kick off?
Shelbourne vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 July 2026 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Shelbourne 2 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Shelbourne vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Dundalk part of?
Shelbourne vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 35% chance of winning, Dundalk a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Shelbourne and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
Record (9 meetings): Shelbourne 5W | Draws 3 | Dundalk 1W.
What form are Shelbourne and Dundalk in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shelbourne's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.99x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 59/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
35%
2.83
27%
3.73
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.95
1.50
Dundalk xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
8%
12.73
9%
11.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.50 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 9D 6L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Shelbourne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.59 PPG from 22 outings (9W 8D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.59 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Shelbourne's home form reads 2W 4D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.91 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.36 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 1.36 points per game from 11 outings (3W 6D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.64 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shelbourne have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Dundalk in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Blended
Dundalk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 7W 9D 6L in their last 22 games (1.36 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 9W 8D 5L in their last 22 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Dundalk away?
Dundalk's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 0.91 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shelbourne have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shelbourne
3
Draws
1
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 6, Dundalk have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Shelbourne, 73% for Dundalk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Shelbourne and 54% for Dundalk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Shelbourne's games and 73% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shelbourne vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Shelbourne's matches and 54% of Dundalk's.
Do Shelbourne and Dundalk tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shelbourne defy the odds to beat Dundalk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Dundalk 2-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.44 xG and Dundalk 1.50 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.90 / defence 1.18 against Dundalk attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 59/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 35% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 38%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Shelbourne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 68%, Dundalk 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.36 PPG, Dundalk 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.