Shelbourne 2-3 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Shelbourne (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shelbourne face Dundalk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to Tolka Park to face Shelbourne in Premier Division, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form
Shelbourne (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shelbourne at Tolka Park this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dundalk have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Dundalk away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Shelbourne. A 1.80 PPG lead over Dundalk (2.10 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shelbourne have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dundalk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Shelbourne have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with Dundalk managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Shelbourne winning.
The historical record gives Shelbourne a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 61% versus Dundalk 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shelbourne 44% | Dundalk 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.73 xG and Dundalk 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.046 / defence 1.145 | Dundalk attack 0.994 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.013. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Shelbourne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Shelbourne games / 8 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 49% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 24%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Dundalk 4.17. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 60% | Dundalk 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 3 Apr 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 49% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Shelbourne 1.73 / Dundalk 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 1.046 / def 1.145 | Dundalk attack 0.994 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Dundalk xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Dundalk kick off?
Shelbourne vs Dundalk kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 3 April 2026 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Shelbourne 2 - 3 Dundalk.
Where is Shelbourne vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Dundalk part of?
Shelbourne vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 49% chance of winning, Dundalk a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Shelbourne and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
Record (7 meetings): Shelbourne 4W | Draws 3 | Dundalk 0W.
What form are Shelbourne and Dundalk in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Dundalk (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shelbourne's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.99x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 44/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.74
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.88
1.15
Dundalk xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
4%
23.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.15 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne come into this having played 36 games, going 15W 14D 7L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 0.72 PPG from 36 outings (5W 11D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. Dundalk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Dundalk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shelbourne's home form reads 8W 6D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 0.50 points per game from 18 outings (1W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 0.64 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shelbourne have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 15W 14D 7L in their last 36 games (1.64 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 5W 11D 20L in their last 36 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Dundalk away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.67 PPG; Dundalk away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shelbourne have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shelbourne
3
Draws
1
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 6, Dundalk have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 61%, Dundalk 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shelbourne) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 28% of games; Dundalk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Shelbourne's games and 67% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shelbourne vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shelbourne's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Dundalk tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dundalk defy the odds to beat Shelbourne 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Shelbourne 2-3 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.73 xG and Dundalk 1.15 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Dundalk outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.05 / defence 1.15 against Dundalk attack 0.99 / defence 1.25, drawn from 44/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 49% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 24%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Dundalk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 44%, Dundalk 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.72. Form was overturned, with Dundalk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shelbourne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.