Shelbourne 1-2 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shelbourne vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Friday 12 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shelbourne have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tolka Park, Shelbourne have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bohemians's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Shelbourne's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Bohemians's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bohemians — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus Bohemians 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 36% | Bohemians 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.27 xG and Bohemians 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.045 / defence 0.811 | Bohemians attack 1.023 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.074. Data: 45 Shelbourne games / 44 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 45% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 26%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 3.85. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Shelbourne 80% | Bohemians 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 12 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 45% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Shelbourne 1.27 / Bohemians 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 1.045 / def 0.811 | Bohemians attack 1.023 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Bohemians xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Bohemians kick off?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 12 April 2024 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Shelbourne 1 - 2 Bohemians.
Where is Shelbourne vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Bohemians part of?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 45% chance of winning, Bohemians a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Shelbourne and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and Bohemians in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (1.04) and Bohemians's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.02x) against Shelbourne's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.48
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.16
0.89
Bohemians xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
7%
13.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.89 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne's recent record stands at 25W 26D 21L from 72 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Bohemians, meanwhile, have gone 28W 20D 24L across 72 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.44 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shelbourne have managed 14W 13D 9L from 36 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians's away record stands at 11W 11D 14L across 36 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.36 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 25W 26D 21L in their last 72 games (1.40 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 28W 20D 24L in their last 72 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Bohemians away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.53 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bohemians in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-3 on 22 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Shelbourne
5
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 2, Bohemians have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shelbourne 0-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bohemians see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 53%, Bohemians 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Shelbourne) and 36% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 31% of games; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 50% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Shelbourne's recent games and 36% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Bohemians tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians defy the odds to beat Shelbourne 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Shelbourne 1-2 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.27 xG and Bohemians 0.89 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.04 / defence 0.81 against Bohemians attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 45% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 26%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 36%, Bohemians 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.40 PPG, Bohemians 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.