Shamrock Rovers 3-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 22 as Shamrock Rovers welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tallaght Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 July 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shamrock Rovers — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shamrock Rovers at Tallaght Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
St Patrick's Athl.'s form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St Patrick's Athl. — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Shamrock Rovers in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shamrock Rovers 65% and St Patrick's Athl. 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 45% | St Patrick's Athl. 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.43 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.088 / defence 1.023 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.990 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.030 / away 1.228. St Patrick's Athl. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Shamrock Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Shamrock Rovers games / 21 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 41% | Draw 26% | St Patrick's Athl. 33%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 80% | St Patrick's Athl. 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jul 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 41% | Draw 26% | St Patrick's Athl. 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.43 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.088 / def 1.023 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.990 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.030 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.24
St Patrick's Athl. xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 30 July 2021 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Shamrock Rovers 3 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 41% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (1.09) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
41%
2.41
26%
3.87
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.67
1.24
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
12%
8.38
8%
12.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.24 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 20 games, going 12W 5D 3L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 2.00 PPG from 20 outings (12W 4D 4L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shamrock Rovers on 2.05 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Shamrock Rovers's home form reads 5W 3D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.44 points per game from 9 outings (3W 4D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St Patrick's Athl.'s season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.70 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Shamrock Rovers have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 12W 5D 3L in their last 20 games (2.05 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 12W 4D 4L in their last 20 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.00 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
2
Draws
3
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shamrock Rovers at 78%, St Patrick's Athl. at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Shamrock Rovers) and 44% (St Patrick's Athl.).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Shamrock Rovers's games and 78% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over St Patrick's Athl..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat St Patrick's Athl. 3-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.43 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.24 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.09 / defence 1.02 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.99 / defence 1.28, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 41% | Draw 26% | St Patrick's Athl. 33%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 45%, St Patrick's Athl. 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shamrock Rovers 2.05 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shamrock Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.