Shamrock Rovers 2-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 15 as Shamrock Rovers welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tallaght Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Shamrock Rovers — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Shamrock Rovers at Tallaght Stadium this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
St Patrick's Athl.'s form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On current form, Shamrock Rovers have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Shamrock Rovers in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 40% versus St Patrick's Athl. 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 46% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.80 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.526 / defence 1.123 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.742 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 0.927. Shamrock Rovers carry an above-average attack strength of 1.526 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Shamrock Rovers games / 51 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 61% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 14%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | St Patrick's Athl. 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 61% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 46% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.80 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.526 / def 1.123 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.742 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.109 / away 0.927 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.77
St Patrick's Athl. xG
46%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Shamrock Rovers 2 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 61% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (1.53) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
61%
1.65
25%
4.01
14%
6.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.57
0.77
St Patrick's Athl. xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
6.92
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
2%
41.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 10.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.77 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 72 games, going 44W 19D 9L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.71 PPG from 72 outings (37W 12D 23L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shamrock Rovers on 2.10 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Shamrock Rovers's home form reads 29W 5D 2L across 36 games on their own ground, a 2.56 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.10 PPG overall — Shamrock Rovers are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.58 points per game from 36 outings (17W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.61 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games; St Patrick's Athl. in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 44W 19D 9L in their last 72 games (2.10 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 23L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.56 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
2
Draws
3
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 47%, St Patrick's Athl. 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Shamrock Rovers) and 58% (St Patrick's Athl.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Shamrock Rovers's matches and 58% of St Patrick's Athl.'s.
Do Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. finished level at 2-2 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.80 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.77 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.53 / defence 1.12 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.74 / defence 1.06, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 61% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 14%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 46%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shamrock Rovers 2.10 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.