Shamrock Rovers 1-1 Galway United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shamrock Rovers face Galway United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Galway United travel to Tallaght Stadium to take on Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shamrock Rovers have gone 6W 4D 0L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Shamrock Rovers have posted 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.14 xG and Galway United 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.414 / defence 0.942 | Galway United attack 0.710 / defence 0.699. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 0.953. Shamrock Rovers carry an above-average attack rating of 1.414 — their 1.14 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Galway United bring a tight defence (rating 0.699, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Shamrock Rovers's projected output down. Galway United's attack rating of 0.710 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Data: built from Shamrock Rovers's last 47 games and Galway United's last 11.
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 47% | Draw 33% | Galway United 20%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.11 | Draw 3.07 | Galway United 4.99. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Galway United's lower xG of 0.64 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 74% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 12 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 47% | Draw 33% | Galway United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% (Under 74%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.14 / Galway United 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.414 / def 0.942 | Galway United attack 0.710 / def 0.699 | league avg home 1.153 / away 0.953 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Galway United xG
33%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United FAQs
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 26 April 2024 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 1 Galway United.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 12) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 47% chance of winning, Galway United a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Galway United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (74%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against Galway United's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Galway United's attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shamrock Rovers's last 47 games and Galway United's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.7%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
47%
2.11
33%
3.07
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
1.78
0.64
Galway United xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.08
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
6%
15.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 10.8 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.3 | 12.3 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Galway United expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.64 for Galway United, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
Galway United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Shamrock Rovers (Home) vs Galway United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
Galway United
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting Galway United specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shamrock Rovers
3
Draws
1
Galway United
Recent Meetings
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Galway United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shamrock Rovers have won 6, Galway United have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Galway United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Galway United 2-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Galway United?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Galway United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shamrock Rovers and Galway United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as Shamrock Rovers and Galway United drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.14 xG and Galway United 0.64 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.41 / defence 0.94 against Galway United attack 0.71 / defence 0.70, drawn from 47/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 47% | Draw 33% | Galway United 20%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.