Shamrock Rovers 3-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 2 July 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shamrock Rovers have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 4W 4D 1L this season (9 games, 1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dundalk (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk away from home this season: 3W 4D 2L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Shamrock Rovers against 1.50 for Dundalk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shamrock Rovers have seen both teams score in 78% of their games, Dundalk in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Dundalk — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shamrock Rovers 61% and Dundalk 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 39% | Dundalk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.18 xG and Dundalk 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 0.956 / defence 0.978 | Dundalk attack 0.937 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.052 / away 1.274. Data: 18 Shamrock Rovers games / 18 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 35% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 34%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Dundalk 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Shamrock Rovers 78% | Dundalk 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jul 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 35% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.18 / Dundalk 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 0.956 / def 0.978 | Dundalk attack 0.937 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.052 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Dundalk xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 2 July 2021 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers 3 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 35% chance of winning, Dundalk a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Dundalk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.94x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
35%
2.87
31%
3.26
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.34
1.17
Dundalk xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.17 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 18 games, going 10W 5D 3L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.33 PPG from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shamrock Rovers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Dundalk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Shamrock Rovers's home form reads 4W 4D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 1.44 points per game from 9 outings (3W 4D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.28 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shamrock Rovers have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Dundalk in 72%.
Last 18 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
Dundalk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 10W 5D 3L in their last 18 games (1.94 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Dundalk away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 1.78 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 0-4 on 31 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
2
Draws
3
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, Dundalk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Dundalk 1-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Shamrock Rovers, 67% for Dundalk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Shamrock Rovers) and 44% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Dundalk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Shamrock Rovers's games and 67% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 44% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Dundalk 3-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.18 xG and Dundalk 1.17 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 0.96 / defence 0.98 against Dundalk attack 0.94 / defence 1.17, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 35% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 34%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 39%, Dundalk 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.