Shamrock Rovers 2-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shamrock Rovers and Derry City meet at Tallaght Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shamrock Rovers at Tallaght Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Derry City away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Shamrock Rovers's favour (2.50 vs 2.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shamrock Rovers have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Derry City in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 56% versus Derry City 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 41% | Derry City 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.38 xG and Derry City 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.080 / defence 0.928 | Derry City attack 1.054 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.178. Data: 27 Shamrock Rovers games / 28 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 42% | Draw 27% | Derry City 31%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Derry City 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 60% | Derry City 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 42% | Draw 27% | Derry City 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.38 / Derry City 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.080 / def 0.928 | Derry City attack 1.054 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Derry City xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Shamrock Rovers 2 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 42% chance of winning, Derry City a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Derry City in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Derry City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (1.08) and Derry City's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.05x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 27/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.76
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.53
1.15
Derry City xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
8%
12.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.15 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 27 games, going 18W 5D 4L for 2.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 1.56 PPG from 27 outings (11W 9D 7L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shamrock Rovers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Derry City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shamrock Rovers's home form reads 8W 3D 1L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Derry City have taken 1.92 points per game from 12 outings (7W 2D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.44 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City in 63%.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
Derry City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Derry City in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 18W 5D 4L in their last 27 games (2.19 PPG), while Derry City have gone 11W 9D 7L in their last 27 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Derry City away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.25 PPG; Derry City away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Derry City in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
3
Draws
2
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, Derry City have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Derry City?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 67%, Derry City 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shamrock Rovers) and 50% (Derry City).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Derry City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Shamrock Rovers's games and 58% of Derry City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 50% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Derry City tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Derry City in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Derry City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Derry City 2-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.38 xG and Derry City 1.15 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.08 / defence 0.93 against Derry City attack 1.05 / defence 1.16, drawn from 27/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 42% | Draw 27% | Derry City 31%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 41%, Derry City 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Derry City's trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.56. That form edge translated into the three points. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.