Shamrock Rovers 1-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Friday 11 March 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bohemians (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Bohemians have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Shamrock Rovers's favour (2.20 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shamrock Rovers have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bohemians in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Shamrock Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shamrock Rovers 56% and Bohemians 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 44% | Bohemians 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.62 xG and Bohemians 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.329 / defence 0.841 | Bohemians attack 1.073 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.034. Shamrock Rovers carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Shamrock Rovers games / 39 Bohemians games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 52% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 21%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Bohemians 4.76. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Shamrock Rovers 60% | Bohemians 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Mar 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 52% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.62 / Bohemians 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.329 / def 0.841 | Bohemians attack 1.073 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Bohemians xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 11 March 2022 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 0 Bohemians.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 52% chance of winning, Bohemians a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.07x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
The sample (40/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.68
21%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.55
0.93
Bohemians xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.88
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
4%
24.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.93 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Shamrock Rovers have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 24W 6D 6L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 14W 10D 12L from 36 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shamrock Rovers have posted 2.28 PPG from 18 outings (12W 5D 1L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 5W 6D 7L from 18 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.67 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians in 67%.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 24W 6D 6L in their last 36 games (2.17 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 14W 10D 12L in their last 36 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Bohemians away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.28 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bohemians in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
5
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, Bohemians have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Shamrock Rovers, 67% for Bohemians — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shamrock Rovers) and 44% (Bohemians).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Shamrock Rovers's games and 67% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 44% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Bohemians 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Bohemians 1-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.62 xG and Bohemians 0.93 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.33 / defence 0.84 against Bohemians attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 40/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 52% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 21%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 44%, Bohemians 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.