Dundalk 1-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Oriel Park to take on Dundalk. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 June 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Oriel Park. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St Patrick's Athl. are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Dundalk have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2023, ended 1–2 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 54% versus St Patrick's Athl. 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 47% | St Patrick's Athl. 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 2.21 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.276 / defence 1.253 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.305 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.143. Dundalk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. St Patrick's Athl. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. St Patrick's Athl. have an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Dundalk games / 58 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 46% | Draw 20% | St Patrick's Athl. 33%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.17 | Draw 5.00 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.03. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.08. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.08 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dundalk at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jun 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 46% | Draw 20% | St Patrick's Athl. 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 75% | xG Dundalk 2.21 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.276 / def 1.253 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.305 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.87
St Patrick's Athl. xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 26 June 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Dundalk 1 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 46% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 33% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (1 meetings): Dundalk 0W | Draws 0 | St Patrick's Athl. 1W.
What form are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 1.28x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
46%
2.15
20%
4.94
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Dundalk xG
Total xG
4.08
1.87
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.05
Clean Sheet
15%
6.48
11%
9.12
Win to Nil
7%
13.95
4%
27.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.87 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 4.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dundalk come into this having played 72 games, going 30W 21D 21L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.71 PPG from 72 outings (36W 15D 21L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dundalk on 1.54 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Dundalk's home form reads 21W 7D 8L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.44 points per game from 36 outings (14W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dundalk are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.57 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 games (1.54 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 36W 15D 21L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Dundalk's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.94 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Dundalk or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dundalk's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dundalk
3
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 58%, St Patrick's Athl. 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Dundalk) and 50% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Dundalk's games and 58% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Dundalk's recent games and 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 25, as Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 2.21 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.87 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Dundalk fell 1.2 short of their projected output. St Patrick's Athl. landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.28 / defence 1.25 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.30 / defence 1.21, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 46% | Draw 20% | St Patrick's Athl. 33%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 47%, St Patrick's Athl. 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.54 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.