Dundalk 2-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Monday 6 March 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dundalk have posted 6W 3D 1L at Oriel Park — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Oriel Park. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
Shelbourne's overall Premier Division record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Shelbourne's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Dundalk, 0.90 for Shelbourne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 44% versus Shelbourne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 47% | Shelbourne 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.89 xG and Shelbourne 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.237 / defence 0.916 | Shelbourne attack 0.892 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 0.899. Data: 39 Dundalk games / 39 Shelbourne games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 64% | Draw 24% | Shelbourne 12%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.56 | Draw 4.17 | Shelbourne 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Dundalk (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 40% | Shelbourne 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Monday 6 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 64% | Draw 24% | Shelbourne 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 46% | xG Dundalk 1.89 / Shelbourne 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.237 / def 0.916 | Shelbourne attack 0.892 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.584 / away 0.899 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Shelbourne xG
46%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Shelbourne kick off?
Dundalk vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 6 March 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Dundalk 2 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Dundalk vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Shelbourne part of?
Dundalk vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 64% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dundalk and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Shelbourne in?
Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Shelbourne (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 1.24x the league average against Shelbourne's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (0.89x) against Dundalk's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
64%
1.57
24%
4.16
12%
8.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.63
0.73
Shelbourne xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
8.06
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
31%
3.28
2%
53.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 10.0 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.73 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dundalk's recent record stands at 17W 12D 7L from 36 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Shelbourne, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 15L across 36 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dundalk by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shelbourne heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 12W 5D 1L from 18 games — 2.28 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shelbourne's away record stands at 5W 5D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.11 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 17W 12D 7L in their last 36 games (1.75 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 10W 11D 15L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Shelbourne away?
Dundalk's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.28 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shelbourne have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dundalk
3
Draws
6
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 1, Shelbourne have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 50%, Shelbourne 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Dundalk) and 39% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Shelbourne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Shelbourne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dundalk's recent matches and 50% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Dundalk's recent games and 39% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Shelbourne tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dundalk edge out Shelbourne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Shelbourne 2-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.89 xG and Shelbourne 0.73 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.24 / defence 0.92 against Shelbourne attack 0.89 / defence 0.97, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 64% | Draw 24% | Shelbourne 12%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 47%, Shelbourne 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Shelbourne's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.