Dundalk 1-0 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dundalk at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Finn Harps encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 21 as Dundalk welcome Finn Harps to Oriel Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 July 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Dundalk have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dundalk have posted 3W 2D 4L at Oriel Park — 1.22 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Finn Harps stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Finn Harps, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Finn Harps's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Dundalk carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dundalk, 1 for Finn Harps and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dundalk in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Finn Harps in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dundalk 74% and Finn Harps 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 53% | Finn Harps 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.42 xG and Finn Harps 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.911 / defence 1.227 | Finn Harps attack 0.773 / defence 1.472. League average goals — home 1.060 / away 1.255. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.472 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Dundalk games / 20 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 42% | Draw 27% | Finn Harps 31%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Finn Harps 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 78% | Finn Harps 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jul 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 42% | Draw 27% | Finn Harps 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Dundalk 1.42 / Finn Harps 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.911 / def 1.227 | Finn Harps attack 0.773 / def 1.472 | league avg home 1.060 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Finn Harps xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Finn Harps kick off?
Dundalk vs Finn Harps kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 July 2021 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Dundalk 1 - 0 Finn Harps.
Where is Dundalk vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Finn Harps part of?
Dundalk vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 42% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dundalk and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Finn Harps?
Record (2 meetings): Dundalk 0W | Draws 1 | Finn Harps 1W.
What form are Dundalk and Finn Harps in?
Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Finn Harps (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dundalk's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Finn Harps's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.72
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.61
1.19
Finn Harps xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
8%
13.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.19 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dundalk's recent record stands at 6W 6D 7L from 19 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Finn Harps, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 10L across 19 games — 0.89 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Finn Harps is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dundalk on 1.26 PPG, Finn Harps on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 3W 2D 4L from 9 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Finn Harps's away record stands at 2W 3D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Dundalk are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 0.84 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Finn Harps in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Blended
Finn Harps
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 games (1.26 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 4W 5D 10L in their last 19 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Finn Harps away?
Dundalk's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.22 PPG; Finn Harps away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dundalk and Finn Harps runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Dundalk have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2022, when Dundalk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dundalk's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Dundalk
2
Draws
1
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Finn Harps?
From 8 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 5, Finn Harps have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 14 October 2022, when Finn Harps 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Finn Harps?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dundalk at 78%, Finn Harps at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Dundalk) and 56% (Finn Harps). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Finn Harps in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Finn Harps?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Dundalk's games and 67% of Finn Harps's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Finn Harps usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Dundalk's matches and 56% of Finn Harps's.
Do Dundalk and Finn Harps tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Finn Harps in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dundalk edge out Finn Harps 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Finn Harps 1-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.42 xG and Finn Harps 1.19 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Finn Harps landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.91 / defence 1.23 against Finn Harps attack 0.77 / defence 1.47, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 42% | Draw 27% | Finn Harps 31%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 53%, Finn Harps 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Finn Harps's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.26 PPG, Finn Harps 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Finn Harps (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.