Dundalk 3-1 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dundalk face Drogheda United.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dundalk and Drogheda United meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
Dundalk's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dundalk's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Dundalk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Drogheda United (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Drogheda United have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Dundalk against 1.60 for Drogheda United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Dundalk's last 10 home games and Drogheda United's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Dundalk's games and 80% of Drogheda United's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Dundalk edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Jun 2023, ended Dundalk 2–1 Drogheda United — a Dundalk win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 51% versus Drogheda United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 52% | Drogheda United 43%). Note also that Drogheda United surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Dundalk recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 2.17 xG and Drogheda United 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.265 / defence 1.056 | Drogheda United attack 1.188 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.037. Dundalk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.265 — their 2.17 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Dundalk's last 67 games and Drogheda United's last 67.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 56% | Draw 22% | Drogheda United 22%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.77 | Draw 4.58 | Drogheda United 4.60. The model has a clear lean to Dundalk (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.17 / 1.30) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dundalk's last 10 home games and Drogheda United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dundalk 70% (last 10 home games) | Drogheda United 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 32 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 29 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 56% | Draw 22% | Drogheda United 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Dundalk 2.17 / Drogheda United 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.265 / def 1.056 | Drogheda United attack 1.188 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Drogheda United xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dundalk vs Drogheda United FAQs
What time does Dundalk vs Drogheda United kick off?
Dundalk vs Drogheda United kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 29 September 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Dundalk 3 - 1 Drogheda United.
Where is Dundalk vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Drogheda United part of?
Dundalk vs Drogheda United is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 32) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 56% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Dundalk and Drogheda United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dundalk vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.26) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (1.19x) against Dundalk's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from Dundalk's last 67 games and Drogheda United's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
56%
1.77
22%
4.58
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Dundalk xG
Total xG
3.47
1.30
Drogheda United xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
11%
8.71
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
2%
40.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dundalk vs Drogheda United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.30 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 30W 19D 18L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Drogheda United's form line: 19W 20D 28L from 67 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Dundalk are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Drogheda United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 2.09 PPG from their last 33 home games (20W 9D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Drogheda United have gone 7W 9D 17L from their last 33 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.06 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
Dundalk (Home) vs Drogheda United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dundalk
Current Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
❓ Dundalk vs Drogheda United Form FAQs
What form are Dundalk and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 30W 19D 18L in their last 67 games (1.63 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 19W 20D 28L in their last 67 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Drogheda United away?
Dundalk's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.09 PPG; Drogheda United away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Drogheda United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Drogheda United in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dundalk
4
Draws
2
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Dundalk vs Drogheda United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dundalk have won 4, Drogheda United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Drogheda United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Drogheda United 2-3 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 58%, Drogheda United 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Dundalk) and 52% (Drogheda United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Drogheda United in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dundalk vs Drogheda United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dundalk and Drogheda United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Dundalk's games and 58% of Drogheda United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dundalk and Drogheda United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Dundalk's matches and 52% of Drogheda United's.
Do Dundalk and Drogheda United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Dundalk's recent matches and 70% of Drogheda United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Drogheda United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Drogheda United 3-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 2.17 xG and Drogheda United 1.30 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.26 / defence 1.06 against Drogheda United attack 1.19 / defence 1.14, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 56% | Draw 22% | Drogheda United 22%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 52%, Drogheda United 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Drogheda United's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Drogheda United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.