Dundalk vs Bohemians – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Bohemians at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Bohemians encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Dundalk and Bohemians meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Current Form

Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bohemians have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Bohemians arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Dundalk register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Bohemians in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Dundalk, 4 for Bohemians and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2026, ended 2–1 with Dundalk winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 28% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dundalk 76% and Bohemians 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 62% | Bohemians 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.35 xG and Bohemians 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.904 / defence 1.200 | Bohemians attack 1.209 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.306. Bohemians have an above-average attack strength of 1.209 — the away xG of 1.90 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 Dundalk games / 65 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dundalk 24% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 47%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 2.13. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 90% | Bohemians 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights