Drogheda United 0-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Weavers Park to take on Drogheda United. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 August 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Drogheda United have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Drogheda United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Drogheda United's home record at Weavers Park: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Weavers Park.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Drogheda United) versus 1.30 (St Patrick's Athl.). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Drogheda United, 1 for St Patrick's Athl. and 4 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Drogheda United in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 51% versus St Patrick's Athl. 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 49% | St Patrick's Athl. 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.05 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.858 / defence 0.809 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.923 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.010. Data: 63 Drogheda United games / 63 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 41% | Draw 34% | St Patrick's Athl. 25%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | St Patrick's Athl. 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — St Patrick's Athl.'s lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Drogheda United as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Drogheda United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Drogheda United 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Friday 22 Aug 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 41% | Draw 34% | St Patrick's Athl. 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Drogheda United 1.05 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.858 / def 0.809 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.923 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
0.75
St Patrick's Athl. xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 22 August 2025 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Drogheda United 0 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 41% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (5 meetings): Drogheda United 0W | Draws 4 | St Patrick's Athl. 1W.
What form are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Drogheda United's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Drogheda United's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
41%
2.42
34%
2.98
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
1.81
0.75
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
9%
11.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 12.4 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Drogheda United and 0.75 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Drogheda United have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 18W 25D 20L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Drogheda United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St Patrick's Athl.'s form line: 27W 16D 20L from 63 games, 1.54 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Drogheda United on 1.25 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Drogheda United have posted 1.58 PPG from 31 outings (12W 13D 6L).
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 10W 8D 13L from 31 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Drogheda United are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.32 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; St Patrick's Athl. in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Blended
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 18W 25D 20L in their last 63 games (1.25 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 27W 16D 20L in their last 63 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.58 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
St Patrick's Athl. have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Drogheda United's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Drogheda United
4
Draws
6
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Drogheda United 0-2 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 52%, St Patrick's Athl. 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Drogheda United) and 48% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. in 36%; Drogheda United have failed to score in 26% of games; St Patrick's Athl. in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 45% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Drogheda United's recent games and 48% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as St Patrick's Athl. defy the odds to beat Drogheda United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Drogheda United 0-1 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.05 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.75 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Drogheda United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.86 / defence 0.81 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 41% | Draw 34% | St Patrick's Athl. 25%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a St Patrick's Athl. win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 49%, St Patrick's Athl. 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.25 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.