Drogheda United 2-0 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Drogheda United face Finn Harps.

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Match Analysis

Drogheda United host Finn Harps at Head in the Game Park in Premier Division (matchday 36). Kick-off is Sunday 6 November 2022 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Drogheda United stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Drogheda United at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Drogheda United are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Finn Harps have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Finn Harps's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Drogheda United 0.80 PPG, Finn Harps 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Drogheda United have won 3, Finn Harps 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2022, ended Drogheda United 0–3 Finn Harps — a Finn Harps win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Drogheda United in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Finn Harps in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 49% versus Finn Harps 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 41% | Finn Harps 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.85 xG and Finn Harps 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.868 / defence 1.002 | Finn Harps attack 0.953 / defence 1.511. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.085. Finn Harps's defence rating of 1.511 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Drogheda United's projected output up. Data: built from Drogheda United's last 71 games and Finn Harps's last 71.

Result probabilities: Drogheda United 56% | Draw 23% | Finn Harps 21%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 1.77 | Draw 4.42 | Finn Harps 4.78. The model has a clear lean to Drogheda United (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Drogheda United at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Drogheda United's last 10 home games and Finn Harps's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Drogheda United 50% (last 10 home games) | Finn Harps 70% (last 10 away games).

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