Derry City 2-2 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Derry City at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derry City vs Finn Harps encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Derry City welcome Finn Harps to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division (matchday 18). Kick-off is Friday 27 May 2022 at 20:45 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Derry City stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Derry City's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Derry City are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Finn Harps have recorded 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Finn Harps have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Derry City carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Derry City have won 2, Finn Harps 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Apr 2022, ended Derry City 2–1 Finn Harps — a Derry City win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Derry City in-play tendencies (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).

Finn Harps in-play tendencies (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derry City 61% and Finn Harps 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 44% | Finn Harps 58%). Note also that Finn Harps surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Derry City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 2.15 xG and Finn Harps 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.214 / defence 0.909 | Finn Harps attack 0.936 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.180. Finn Harps's defence rating of 1.337 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Derry City's projected output up. Data: built from Derry City's last 54 games and Finn Harps's last 53.

Result probabilities: Derry City 63% | Draw 20% | Finn Harps 17%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.58 | Draw 5.04 | Finn Harps 6.00. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Derry City's last 10 home games and Finn Harps's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Derry City 40% (last 10 home games) | Finn Harps 60% (last 10 away games).

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