Derry City 1-0 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium to face Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this season.
Dundalk (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Derry City register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Dundalk in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Derry City — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Dundalk — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derry City 62% and Dundalk 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 38% | Dundalk 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.46 xG and Dundalk 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.111 / defence 1.202 | Dundalk attack 0.930 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.012 / away 1.247. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Derry City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Derry City games / 21 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 39% | Draw 25% | Dundalk 36%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Dundalk 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 80% | Dundalk 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 39% | Draw 25% | Dundalk 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Derry City 1.46 / Dundalk 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.111 / def 1.202 | Dundalk attack 0.930 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.012 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Derry City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Dundalk xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Dundalk kick off?
Derry City vs Dundalk kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Dundalk?
Derry City 1 - 0 Dundalk.
Where is Derry City vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Dundalk part of?
Derry City vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 39% chance of winning, Dundalk a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Derry City and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Dundalk in?
Derry City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Dundalk (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Derry City's attack rating (1.11) and Dundalk's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.93x) against Derry City's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 23/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
39%
2.56
25%
4.00
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.86
1.39
Dundalk xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
8%
12.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Derry City and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Derry City and 1.39 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derry City's recent record stands at 8W 7D 6L from 21 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 8L across 21 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Derry City against 1.29 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 2W 6D 2L from 10 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 3W 4D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.24 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Dundalk in 71%.
Last 21 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Blended
Dundalk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 8W 7D 6L in their last 21 games (1.48 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 7W 6D 8L in their last 21 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Dundalk away?
Dundalk's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.20 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 15 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Derry City
5
Draws
1
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 4, Dundalk have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Dundalk 2-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Dundalk?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Derry City, 70% for Dundalk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Derry City) and 50% (Dundalk).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Derry City's games and 70% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derry City vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Derry City's recent games and 50% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Dundalk tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Dundalk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Dundalk 1-0 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.46 xG and Dundalk 1.39 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dundalk landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.11 / defence 1.20 against Dundalk attack 0.93 / defence 1.30, drawn from 23/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 39% | Draw 25% | Dundalk 36%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 38%, Dundalk 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Dundalk's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.48 PPG, Dundalk 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.