Derry City 1-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Derry City at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Derry City face Bohemians.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Derry City and Bohemians meet at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division (matchday 2). This fixture gets under way on Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Derry City have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Derry City have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Derry City are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Bohemians's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bohemians's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Derry City's last 10 home games and Bohemians's last 10 away games) — Derry City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bohemians in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Derry City edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Oct 2024, ended Derry City 1–1 Bohemians — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 42% versus Bohemians 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 40% | Bohemians 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.21 xG and Bohemians 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.015 / defence 0.984 | Bohemians attack 1.021 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.067. Data: built from Derry City's last 37 games and Bohemians's last 37. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Derry City 38% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 31%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.66 | Draw 3.19 | Bohemians 3.22. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Derry City 60% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

The Poisson model's sample (Derry City 37 games, Bohemians 37) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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