Cork City 2-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cork City at 37%, yet in-form Bohemians provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cork City vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Bohemians travel to Turners Cross to take on Cork City. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 February 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cork City stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cork City haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cork City's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Turners Cross this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cork City are significantly better at Turners Cross than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Bohemians's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cork City's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cork City, 3 for Bohemians and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2023, ended 0–4 with Bohemians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cork City in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Bohemians in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cork City 46% versus Bohemians 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cork City 54% | Bohemians 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 1.15 xG and Bohemians 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.970 / defence 1.267 | Bohemians attack 0.924 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 0.956. Data: 1 Cork City games / 38 Bohemians games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cork City 37% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 35%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cork City at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bohemians (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cork City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Cork City 40% | Bohemians 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cork City vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Turners Cross • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cork City 37% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Cork City 1.15 / Bohemians 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Cork City attack 0.970 / def 1.267 | Bohemians attack 0.924 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.341 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Cork City (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Cork City xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Bohemians xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cork City vs Bohemians kick off?
Cork City vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Turners Cross.
What was the final score in Cork City vs Bohemians?
Cork City 2 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Cork City vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Turners Cross.
What competition is Cork City vs Bohemians part of?
Cork City vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Cork City vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Cork City a 37% chance of winning, Bohemians a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cork City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cork City vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cork City and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Cork City vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Bohemians?
Record (4 meetings): Cork City 1W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 3W.
What form are Cork City and Bohemians in?
Cork City (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cork City's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus Cork City's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cork City Win
37%
2.73
29%
3.50
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Cork City xG
Total xG
2.27
1.12
Bohemians xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cork City vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cork City and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Cork City and 1.12 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Cork City vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cork City come into this having played 37 games, going 8W 7D 22L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. Cork City haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.22 PPG from 37 outings (11W 12D 14L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cork City on 0.84 PPG, Bohemians on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cork City's home form reads 6W 4D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.33 points per game from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cork City are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.16 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cork City
Pre-Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cork City and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Cork City have gone 8W 7D 22L in their last 37 games (0.84 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 11W 12D 14L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cork City at home or Bohemians away?
Bohemians's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cork City at home: 1.22 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 August 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2023, when Bohemians won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cork City's record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cork City
0
Draws
6
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Bohemians?
From 8 meetings on record, Cork City have won 2, Bohemians have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cork City and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2025, when Bohemians 3-0 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between Cork City and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cork City 44%, Bohemians 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Cork City) and 33% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Cork City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bohemians in 33%; Cork City have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cork City home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cork City play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cork City's recent matches and 50% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cork City vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Cork City's recent games and 33% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cork City and Bohemians tend to score early?
Cork City have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cork City edge out Bohemians 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cork City beat Bohemians 2-1 at Turners Cross, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.15 xG and Bohemians 1.12 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cork City beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.97 / defence 1.27 against Bohemians attack 0.92 / defence 0.89, drawn from 1/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cork City 37% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 35%, with Cork City to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 54%, Bohemians 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cork City 0.84 PPG, Bohemians 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cork City win broke the near-deadlock. Cork City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.