Bohemians 1-1 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 10 as Bohemians welcome Waterford to Dalymount Park. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Waterford's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Bohemians) versus 0.80 (Waterford). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Bohemians have won 3, Waterford 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Bohemians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Waterford in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus Waterford 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 42% | Waterford 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 2.33 xG and Waterford 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.983 / defence 0.929 | Waterford attack 1.082 / defence 1.717. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.034. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.717 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Bohemians games / 45 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 65% | Draw 22% | Waterford 14%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.54 | Draw 4.55 | Waterford 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 40% | Waterford 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 65% | Draw 22% | Waterford 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG Bohemians 2.33 / Waterford 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.983 / def 0.929 | Waterford attack 1.082 / def 1.717 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Waterford xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Waterford kick off?
Bohemians vs Waterford kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Bohemians 1 - 1 Waterford.
Where is Bohemians vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Waterford part of?
Bohemians vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 65% chance of winning, Waterford a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bohemians and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Waterford?
Record (8 meetings): Bohemians 3W | Draws 1 | Waterford 4W.
What form are Bohemians and Waterford in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 0.98x the league average against Waterford's defence at 1.72x — combine the two and it projects 2.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
65%
1.55
22%
4.60
14%
7.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Bohemians xG
Total xG
3.37
1.04
Waterford xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
7.28
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
10%
10.30
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
1%
74.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.04 for Waterford, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Waterford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians's recent record stands at 26W 18D 28L from 72 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Waterford, meanwhile, have gone 25W 11D 36L across 72 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians on 1.33 PPG, Waterford on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 14W 8D 14L from 36 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waterford's away record stands at 11W 5D 20L across 36 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.18 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Waterford in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 games (1.33 PPG), while Waterford have gone 25W 11D 36L in their last 72 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Waterford away?
Bohemians's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.39 PPG; Waterford away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians and Waterford runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2025, when Bohemians won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians
2
Draws
5
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 3, Waterford have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Waterford 3-1 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Waterford?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 50%, Waterford 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bohemians) and 50% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Waterford in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians's recent matches and 47% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bohemians's recent games and 50% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Waterford tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Waterford in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Waterford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 10, as Bohemians and Waterford drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 2.33 xG and Waterford 1.04 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Waterford attack 1.08 / defence 1.72, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 65% | Draw 22% | Waterford 14%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, Waterford 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Waterford's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.33 PPG, Waterford 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.