Bohemians 1-3 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 22 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shamrock Rovers away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shamrock Rovers are 0.80 PPG clear of Bohemians in recent Premier Division fixtures (2.20 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 67% and Shamrock Rovers 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 58% | Shamrock Rovers 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.15 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.204 / defence 1.123 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.022 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.203. Data: 47 Bohemians games / 47 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 30% | Draw 29% | Shamrock Rovers 41%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Shamrock Rovers 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 80% | Shamrock Rovers 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 22 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 30% | Draw 29% | Shamrock Rovers 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Bohemians 1.15 / Shamrock Rovers 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.204 / def 1.123 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.022 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Shamrock Rovers xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 22 April 2022 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Bohemians 1 - 3 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 30% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 1.20x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.02x) against Bohemians's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
30%
3.33
29%
3.44
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.53
1.38
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
8%
13.25
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.38 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians's recent record stands at 14W 10D 12L from 36 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 24W 6D 6L across 36 games — 2.17 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bohemians heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 9W 4D 5L from 18 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 12W 1D 5L across 18 trips, a 2.06 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.64 scored and 0.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 14W 10D 12L in their last 36 games (1.44 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 24W 6D 6L in their last 36 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.72 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians
1
Draws
4
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 5, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 67%, Shamrock Rovers 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Bohemians) and 39% (Shamrock Rovers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Shamrock Rovers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Bohemians's games and 44% of Shamrock Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Bohemians's matches and 39% of Shamrock Rovers's.
Do Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bohemians.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Bohemians 1-3 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.15 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.38 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.20 / defence 1.12 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.02 / defence 0.87, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 30% | Draw 29% | Shamrock Rovers 41%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 58%, Shamrock Rovers 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.